Last season, Elks kicker Vincent Blanchard made just 35 of his 45 field goals. That's 77.8% and teetering on the number that gets a kicker replaced.
This season he has been born again, making 55 of 59. He led the CFL in regular season field goals and points as well as setting a league record with nine field goals in one game against Hamilton. On Sunday he lines up in his first Grey Cup, against a Montreal kicker who has history in this game, hit a walk-off to get here last year and is doing it with his left wrist in a cast.
Everyone is saying kicking could decide the 113th Grey Cup. I agree with the commentary, but not exactly for the same reasons. Because I don't think the question is which kicker is better, it's which team is more reliant on its kicker, and that answer is Edmonton by a distance.
I went back through every Grey Cup since 2000, and seven of 25 came down to a kick in the final two minutes or overtime.
Edmonton kicks, Montreal scores
The Elks kicked 55 field goals this season and scored 51 offensive touchdowns. Using some quick math, that's more threes than sixes. While Montreal went the other way scoring 42 field goals and 65 offensive touchdowns.
- Blanchard scored 211 points, about 39% of Edmonton's 541.
- Maltos Díaz scored at least 183 from field goals and converts, about 29% of Montreal's 624.
- Inside the 10, Edmonton scored touchdowns on 74.4% of its goal-to-go chances. Montreal converted 85%.
- In the Western Final, Blanchard went 5-for-5 and scored 16 of Edmonton's 28 points.
So these numbers aren't a knock on Blanchard, rather a compliment in just how much his role backs up how the team plays. Edmonton has the league's best defence with fewest points allowed, fewest yards allowed and most takeaways. A team built like that can win ugly, as long as its kicker turns every decent field position into points and that is what Edmonton and Blanchard have done.
Montreal is a different animal altogether and why this game will be fun to watch. The Als had the CFL's best offence by yardage, the fewest sacks allowed and the fewest turnovers. When they get to the red zone, they inevitably score. Here though, Maltos Díaz is more of a closer or finisher for his team while for Edmonton, Blanchard is a key part of the offence.
The kickers, side by side
| Stat | Vincent Blanchard (EDM) | José Maltos Díaz (MTL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 field goals | 55/59 (93.2%) | 40/43 (93.0%) |
| Long | 57 | 50 |
| 2026 converts | 42/47 (89.4%) | 63/67 (94.0%) |
| 2025 field goals | 35/45 (77.8%) | 58/65 (89.2%) |
| Career field goals | 91/105 (86.7%) | 138/153 (90.2%) |
| 2026 division final | 5/5 FG | 4/4 FG |
| Grey Cup experience | None | 2025 (made his FG and converts) |
| 2026 walk-off winners | 57 yards at Saskatchewan, 40 yards vs Winnipeg | – |
| Last postseason walk-off | – | 45 yards, 2025 East Final at Hamilton |
Where each kicker is vulnerable
Blanchard's weak spot isn't field goals, it's converts. He missed five of 47 this season, which is more than Maltos Díaz missed on 67 tries. In a game that could have more touchdowns than either defence wants, a missed point after a touchdown could be the dagger at the final siren.
His field goal accuracy also has a clear line in it. Inside 30 yards he was 27-for-27, but from 30 and out he was 28-for-32 (87.5%). Now don't get me wrong, that's still very good, but it means Edmonton's drives that stall around midfield are less automatic than the season percentage suggests.
Maltos Díaz's accuracy is not the question for Montreal, he missed just three field goals all season and was perfect from 50-plus. But he hurt his left wrist against Saskatchewan in Week 20 and needed surgery. Lewis Ward came in for the regular-season finale, missed a routine field goal, and the Als even had punter Joseph Zema try a convert, which he missed. Díaz came back in a cast for the East Final and went 4-for-4. If you're going to break something as a kicker, the wrist on your non-kicking side is the one to pick.
25 years of Grey Cups say the kick matters
I went back through the scoring summary of every Grey Cup since 2000. A total of 25 games, since there was no Grey Cup in 2020.
- As the chart above shows, seven of twenty five came down to a kick in the final two minutes or overtime.
- 16 of the 25 were decided by eight points or fewer.
- The team that kicked more field goals went 12-6. The other seven games were even.
- Teams that kicked four or more field goals went 6-2. Edmonton averaged just over three a game this season.
The last time Edmonton and Montreal met in a Grey Cup was 2005. Damon Duval tied it for Montreal with a field goal on the final play of regulation, and Sean Fleming won it for Edmonton with a 36-yarder in overtime.
The recent finals have been just as tight. Four of the last five were decided by eight points or fewer. Last year Brett Lauther missed a 39-yarder with 6:36 left but Saskatchewan won anyway 25-17. In 2022 Marc Liegghio missed a 4th-qtr convert then got blocked on a go-ahead attempt with less than a minute on the clock. In 2021 Michael Domagala forced OT with a 13-yard field goal in the dying seconds while Winnipeg's Sergio Castillo went 5-5 with two rouges and won the game.
These two teams already have a kicking story from this season. In June, Maltos Díaz went 5-for-5 at Edmonton, forcing overtime with a field goal as time expired and adding another in the extra period. Edmonton still won 32-29. Montreal took the August rematch 48-30.
The weather sits right on the line
Sunday looks mild for Calgary in November, the predictions says clear skies, a high around 9 to 11°C and a light southwest wind. But kickoff is at 5 p.m. MT, the sun sets at 5:48, and from the sites I have looked at they have it down to 7°C by 6 p.m. and 6°C by 9 p.m. That means most of the game will be played below 10°C.
That number matters and I have the stats to prove it. A study of 12 NFL seasons by Torin Clark, Aaron Johnson and Alexander Stimpson found that kicks below 50°F (10°C) and in winds of 10 mph (16 km/h) or more were significantly less likely to go through. Artificial turf, which McMahon has, made kicks more likely. A larger sample of 11,697 outdoor NFL attempts puts rough numbers on it, about 1.7 percentage points lost in the 32 to 49°F range, and 2.5 points lost in 10 to 14 mph winds.
Most forecasts have the sustained wind under that 16 km/h line, but gusts are expected to reach the high teens. One forecast has a 20 km/h wind earlier in the day, and Chinooks can flip Calgary weather in a few hours. Two points of accuracy doesn't sound like much. But four of the last five Grey Cups were decided by eight points or fewer, and one miss is all it takes.
Three kicks to watch
- Edmonton's first convert - If Blanchard's first one goes through cleanly, the Elks' coaches can stop thinking about it.
- Edmonton inside the 20 - The Elks will kick some field goals. If they're kicking from inside the 20 more than twice, Montreal is probably winning the game.
- Any kick from 45 yards or more in the fourth quarter - Blanchard has more range but Maltos Díaz has more Grey Cup experience, for me that kick is where the two meet.
How I see it playing out
Montreal is the better team on paper, and the CFL's own KPMG model gives the Als a 64% chance to lift the Cup. As a stats man i can't really go against the model. Montreal's offence finishes drives, and Edmonton's settles for easy points.
But if the Elks pull this off, it will probably be a lot like the Western Final where a defence that takes the ball away, and a kicker who turns every short field into points win the game. In that type of matchup Blanchard is the most dangerous player on the field.
Every Grey Cup since 2000
| Finding | Number |
|---|---|
| Grey Cups that came down to a kick in the final two minutes or overtime | 7 of 25 (2000, 2005, 2009, 2016, 2017, 2021, 2022) |
| Of those, in the last nine Grey Cups | 4 (2016, 2017, 2021, 2022) |
| Grey Cups decided by 8 points or fewer | 16 of 25 |
| Grey Cups decided by 3 points or fewer | 6 of 25 |
| Overtime Grey Cups | 3 (2005, 2016, 2021) |
| Record of the team that kicked more field goals | 12-6 (7 games even) |
| Record of teams that kicked 4+ field goals | 6-2 (losses: Saskatchewan 2009, Calgary 2012) |
| Most field goals by one team | 6 (BC 2006, Paul McCallum; Winnipeg 2019, Justin Medlock) |
| Field goals made, all 25 games | 113 (4.5 per game; winners 64, losers 49) |
| Share of all points from field goals and singles | About 29% (363 of 1,266) |
| Kickers named Most Valuable Canadian | 2 (Paul McCallum 2006, Sandro DeAngelis 2008) |
| Last Edmonton vs Montreal Grey Cup | 2005: Duval's FG on the final play forced OT, Fleming's 36-yard FG won it 38-35 |