10 Numbers That Decide the Mexico City Grand Prix
2 Points - All Antonelli Needs
The
official F1 race report from Austin confirms that Antonelli needs only two points in Mexico City to seal the title. Ninth place or better does it, no matter where his rivals finish. He leads by 123 points with five rounds left.
5 of 10 - How Often Pole Wins in Mexico
Since the race returned in 2015, pole has won five of the 10 Grands Prix here, including the last two with Carlos Sainz in 2024 and Lando Norris in 2025. Bottas lost the race from pole in 2021 after Verstappen went around the outside of both Mercedes into Turn 1.
10 of 10 - Winners From the Top Three
Every winner since 2015 has started in the top three. When pole hasn't won, the driver in second or third has. Qualifying in the first two rows is close to essential.
2.7 Places - How Little the Order Changes
Drivers here have finished an average of just 2.7 places away from where they started, among the lowest of any track. The long run to Turn 1 creates chances on lap 1, but after that, the thin air makes it hard to follow closely through the slower corners.
3 of 6 - Races With a Safety Car
A full Safety Car came out in three of the last six races, in 2021, 2023 and 2024. A Virtual Safety Car came out in four of them. That's a coin flip for a full neutralisation, and with a one-stop the usual plan, a well-timed Safety Car is the most likely way to shake up the order.
5 Wins - Verstappen's Mexico Record
Max Verstappen has won here five times (2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2023), more than any other driver. He was third last year, behind Norris and Charles Leclerc.
6 in a Row - Verstappen's Podium Streak
Verstappen has finished on the podium at six straight events. Austin was the hardest one, with power unit problems and a slow pit stop, and he still finished third.
2 Straight - Leclerc's Runner-Up Finishes
Leclerc finished second in Singapore and second again in Austin. He was also second here last year, and Ferrari won in 2024.
1 Point - The Fight for Second
George Russell has 242 points and Lewis Hamilton has 241 in the battle for runner-up. Russell finished eighth in Austin, and Hamilton was fourth. That fight is as close as it gets over the last five rounds.
2,200 Metres - The Highest Track in F1
Mexico City sits more than 2,200 metres above sea level. The thin air cuts downforce and makes cooling the brakes and power units harder, which is why reliability problems often show up here. Cars run their biggest wings of the season but still slide around in the slow corners.
What the Numbers Point To
Start at the front and you'll most likely win here. Every winner since 2015 has come from the top three, and drivers barely move from their grid slots once the opening lap is done.
That puts the focus on Saturday, and Mercedes look like they have the fastest car after Austin. I break down every market in my full Mexico City Grand Prix picks before lights out on Sunday.