Bucks vs Celtics Predictions & Picks - Milwaukee's Poor Defense Keeps This High
- Over 223.5 points is tipped for Bucks vs Celtics, with Herro over 19.5 points also recommended.
- Milwaukee's defence is struggling, and Boston has scored 125+ in three of four home games.
- Jayson Tatum is a game-time call, which could affect the total.
Bucks vs Celtics Expert Predictions & Picks
Points will be flying when the Bucks visit the Celtics on Wednesday, Nov. 4, at 7:30 p.m. ET so I'm taking the Game Total Over 223.5 and Tyler Herro over 19.5 points.
The Bucks have lost six of seven, and their games keep turning into track meets. Milwaukee ranks 27th in defensive rating and fourth in pace, and opponents are averaging 124.1 points against it. Five of its seven games have cleared this total.
Boston has been happy to take advantage at home. The Celtics are 4-0 at TD Garden and have scored 125 or more in three of those four games.
Herro is the one Bucks scorer I trust to keep up. He's averaging 21.9 points and 3.6 threes, and he's scored 20 or more in 5 of 7 games.
Key Stats
- Milwaukee's games are averaging 235.3 total points
- The Bucks rank 27th in defensive rating and fourth in pace
- Boston has scored 125 or more in three of four home games
- Herro has topped 19.5 points in 5 of 7 games
Head to Head
Boston won three of four meetings last season, and the totals were mostly low. The Celtics won 107-79 at TD Garden in February, then 108-81 and 133-101 in Milwaukee. The Bucks won 116-101 at home in December.
Only the 234 in April cleared this number but none of those Milwaukee teams was giving up 124 a night.
Milwaukee Bucks Form
The defense is the problem. The Bucks have allowed 127 or more five times, including 132 to Houston and 136 to Cleveland, and they're giving guards 63.1 points a game, the fifth-most in the league.
They're 0-3 on the road and have lost all three by 11 or 12. Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr. (16.6 points) and Kel'el Ware (11.4 points, 8.7 rebounds) carry the scoring. Earl Timberlake is a game-time call.
Boston Celtics Form
Jayson Tatum is a game-time call for rest, and that's the biggest risk to the Over. He's averaging 27 points and 7.9 assists and scored 40 against Brooklyn.
Payton Pritchard (shoulder) is also a game-time call, and Devin Carter is out. Boston lost 109-93 in Houston on Monday on the second night of a back-to-back, but it has a day off before this one. Paul George is adding 20.7 points and 3.2 threes.
Verdict
Milwaukee can't stop anyone right now, and Boston has scored freely at home. I'm on the Over and riding Herro to keep the Bucks in shouting distance on the scoreboard.
Ryan Tucker
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Ryan is a sports content writer and editor, producing insights and analysis for major sports including NFL, NHL, NBA and more.
Born in Australia, multiple trips to North America deepened his love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for all major sporting events across basketball, ice hockey, baseball, football and Australian sports that are still close to his heart.