Home / NBA / Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets Predictions & Picks – Rockets To Cover In Home Opener In NBA
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets Predictions & Picks – Rockets To Cover In Home Opener In NBA
- Houston favored to cover spread against Mavericks
- Rockets hold rebounding edge versus Dallas’ frontcourt
- Mavericks debut a new head coach and overhauled squad
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets Predictions & Picks
Houston are tipped to cover as they beat their state rivals on opening night.
The Rockets return the core of the roster that made the playoffs last season, and they are boosted further by the returns of Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet from injury.
The can dominate on the glass against a Mavericks team that lacks frontcourt depth, denying Dallas second-chance opportunities while creating plenty for themselves.
- Houston Rockets are 4-0 in each of the last 4 meetings at home
- Dallas Mavericks were 16-24-0 ATS on the road last season
- The Under has cashed in 6 of the previous 8 meetings
Head To Head
- Houston Rockets lead the all-time series 115-106
- Houston Rockets won 111-107 when the two teams last met in January 2026
Dallas Mavericks Form
Dallas underwent significant changes in the offseason, replacing head coach Jason Kidd with Dusty May, while re-tooling the roster.
The Mavericks traded for Zaccharie Risacher, Santi Aldama and Marcus Sasser, while Klay Thompson, Khris Middleton and Ryan Nembhard were among several players to depart.
They enter this season-opening matchup having lost three of their four pre-season matchups.
Dallas opened with a 135-117 home defeat to Houston, but avenged that a couple of days later with a 132-115 win over the Rockets on the road.
The Mavericks failed to follow that up though, as they dropped back-to-back home games to close out pre-season, losing 101-97 to New Orleans and 135-111 to Atlanta.
Houston Rockets Form
Houston opted against making headline-grabbing changes to the roster in the offseason.
Free agents Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic were added to the roster, while Dorian Finney-Smith was traded to Charlotte and Josh Okogue left for Utah.
They prepared for the 2026/27 season with limited pre-season matchups, playing just three games.
Houston opened with a 135-117 victory in Dallas, only to lose 132-115 when they hosted the Mavericks a couple of days later.
The Mavericks then wrapped up pre-season with a victory, downing Oklahoma 116-89 at home.
Verdict
Houston dropped two of their three meetings with a bad Dallas team last season, but they did take their only home game and it has been a couple of years since they lost to the Mavs at the Toyota Center.
They also return with a settled group, unlike the visitors, so we are leaning towards the Rockets covering in this one.
They also return with a settled group, unlike the visitors, so we are leaning towards the Rockets covering in this one.
Leigh Copson
Sports Editor • 25+ Years Experience, US & Combat Sports Specialist
US sports writer covering the NFL, NBA, NHL, boxing and MMA, with previews, predictions and betting tips across the major American leagues.
During his career at the Press Association and online sports sites including FreeTips and ExpertPicks.com, he has covered some of the biggest sporting events on the planet, including the Super Bowl, the Champions League Final and the World Cup Final.
He has also covered almost every major boxing match and UFC fight card during this time.. His specialist sports are American Football, Basketball, Ice Hockey, Boxing, Mixed Martial Arts and Football.