Kings at Spurs Expert Predictions & Picks
I'm taking the Over 230.5 when Sacramento visits San Antonio on Tuesday, Oct. 27, at 8:00 p.m. ET. Domantas Sabonis has been pounding the boards, so I'm taking him for 14+ rebounds.
The Spurs are -18.5 and I'm not touching that. San Antonio is 1-2 and ranks 21st in offensive rating so I don't necessarily need the Spurs to be sharp, I need the Kings to defend like they have been.
Sacramento is allowing 124 points a game and ranks 28th in defensive rating. All three meetings last season went past this number, at 233, 261 and 236. On the road last season, Kings games cleared 230.5 in 23 of 41 outings.
Sabonis has 18, 19 and 15 rebounds, averaging 17.3. He had 13 in San Antonio last November. With Keegan Murray out, nobody else on Sacramento is taking boards off him.
Key Stats
- Sacramento is allowing 124 points a game, 28th in defensive rating
- All three Kings-Spurs meetings last season finished at 233 points or more
- On the road last season, Kings games went over 230.5 in 23 of 41 tries
- Sabonis has grabbed 15+ rebounds in all three games this season
Head to Head
San Antonio won all three meetings last season, 123-110 and 139-122 at home and 132-104 in Sacramento. The Spurs scored 123 or more every time, and the Kings still chipped in 104 to 122. That's the shape I expect again with the Spurs running up a big number and Sacramento to score enough to push it over.
Sacramento Kings Form
The Kings are 0-3, and the defense is the reason. They've given up 121, 128 and 123. Their shooting hasn't helped, at 28% from three, but Zach LaVine (29 points a game) and Darius Acuff Jr. (22.3) are getting their points anyway.
Murray (ankle), Ben Simmons, Maxime Raynaud and Dylan Cardwell are all out. That thins the frontcourt and leaves Sabonis to do the rebounding. He's playing 35.6 minutes a night and has double-digit boards every time out.
San Antonio Spurs Form
The Spurs haven't found their shot yet. They're hitting 31.9% from three, so the 112 points a game is a floor, not a ceiling. Last season they averaged 119.8. Victor Wembanyama (20 points, 11 rebounds), Dylan Harper (20) and Stephon Castle (19.3) give them three scorers. De'Aaron Fox is handing out 8.3 assists a game.
San Antonio comes in with two days of rest. Tobias Harris is out with a calf strain.