Lakers vs Warriors Predictions & Picks - LA's Offense Is Too Much
- Lakers -2.5 and Reaves over 24.5 points are the main tips.
- LA leads the NBA in offensive rating and has won four straight vs Golden State.
- Golden State's defence ranks 26th and allows 119.4 points per game.
By Ryan Tucker • Sports Editor & Betting Analyst
Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Fact Checked by: Leigh Copson•Updated:
Lakers vs Warriors Expert Predictions & Picks
The NBA Cup hits the Bay Area tonight and I'm taking the Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 in San Francisco on while also predicting Austin Reaves to go over 24.5 points.
The Lakers have the best offense in the NBA, and Golden State is still missing its size. LA is 4-1 and ranks first in offensive rating, and Golden State ranks 26th on defense with Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis and Moses Moody out.
Los Angeles has also beaten the Warriors four straight times. That includes 127-105 on opening night and two double-digit wins at Chase Center last season.
Reaves scored 23, 28, 29 and 26 in the four games Luka Dončić played. The 2.50 price implies 40%, and he's at 60% this season, it's a no brainer really.
Key Stats
- The Lakers rank first in offensive rating and fifth in net rating
- Golden State ranks 26th in defensive rating and is allowing 119.4 points a game
- LA has won four straight against Golden State by an average of 18 points
- Reaves is averaging 24.4 points and has scored 25+ in 3 of 5 games
Head to Head
Golden State won the 2025-26 opener in Los Angeles, and the Lakers have won every meeting since: 105-99, 129-101 and 119-103 last season, then 127-105 to open this one. The two games at Chase Center were decided by 28 and 16.
Los Angeles Lakers Form
Dončić is averaging 36 points, 8.2 assists and 5.2 threes, including 52 and 41 in his last two games. He sat Wednesday's win over the Clippers, the second night of a back-to-back, and isn't on the injury report. Ziaire Williams is a game-time call with a foot injury.
The weakness is the glass. LA is pulling down 45.2 rebounds a game, and the defense ranks 18th, so this won't be a lockdown.
Golden State Warriors Form
The Warriors have won two straight on the road, at Denver and Minnesota, and Stephen Curry dropped 44 in the win over the Timberwolves. Yaxel Lendeborg is averaging 22.6 points and 9.2 rebounds.
The defense is still the problem. Golden State is allowing 13 threes a game, and Gui Santos is a game-time call with knee tendinitis. If Curry gets hot again, a 2.5-point line is not much of a cushion.
Verdict
The better offense, four straight wins in this matchup and a short number. I'll lay the 2.5 and take Reaves at a price that looks like a typo.
Ryan Tucker
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Ryan is a sports content writer and editor, producing insights and analysis for major sports including NFL, NHL, NBA and more.
Born in Australia, multiple trips to North America deepened his love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for all major sporting events across basketball, ice hockey, baseball, football and Australian sports that are still close to his heart.