Thunder vs Clippers Prediction and Picks - Clippers Can Score

Two straight losses in Portland have the short-handed Oklahoma City Thunder looking vulnerable, which is the starting point for this Thunder vs Clippers prediction in an NBA Cup group game against the LA Clippers, with tip-off at 10.30 p.m. ET.

I'm leaving the spread alone. The Clippers have covered +6.5 in only 3 of 10, but laying that many points with this Thunder lineup doesn't appeal either.

Clippers over 107.5 points at 1.86 leads the card. They've cleared it in 7 of 10 games, including five straight, and they're scoring 116.2 a game at home.

Thunder under 114.5 points at 1.90 goes with it. Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace are all out long term, Ajay Mitchell is questionable, per ESPN's injury report, and they've stayed under this line in 7 of 12.

Kris Dunn 1+ made three at 1.60 rounds it out. He's hit one in 8 of 10, against a Thunder defence that allows 14.8 made threes a game.

Oklahoma City swept the 2025-26 season series 3-0 and lead this season's series 1-0.

That win came on October 25 in Oklahoma City, 108-101. The Clippers pulled within 97-96 on a Derrick Jones Jr. three with three minutes left but got no closer. In the ESPN recap, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 34 while the Clippers committed 26 turnovers. Williams suffered his leg injury late in that game.

Oklahoma City are 8-4 with a +4.1 net rating, 11th in the league. The defence still ranks fourth at 105.1 points per 100 possessions, but the offence has slipped to 18th at 109.2.

The home and road split is huge. At home they're 5-0 and allowing 98.0 points a game. On the road they're scoring 109.4, allowing 113.3 and forcing 12.6 turnovers, down from 17.4 at home.

The scoring has narrowed without Williams and Holmgren. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 29.7 points, and 31.4 over his last five, with Mitchell next at 18.5. No other healthy player averages more than Jared McCain's 12.7.

They lost 123-103 and 118-108 in Portland on back-to-back nights, shooting 8 of 22 from three in the first. Deni Avdija scored 28 in the second, according to ESPN, and Mitchell sat out with his ankle.

The Clippers are 2-8 with a -5.7 net rating, 24th in the league. The offence ranks 22nd at 108.4 and the defence 25th at 114.1.

Home is where they score. They're putting up 116.2 a game at Intuit Dome, against 108.2 on the road, where they're 0-5 and allowing 123.4.

Ball security is improving. They average 18.5 turnovers, but just 14.8 over their last four. They take 37 threes a game at 38.1%, and Darius Garland leads them at 20.4 points and 6.9 assists.

They lost 133-110 in Phoenix on Tuesday, when the Suns hit 22 of 43 threes, per ESPN, and Brandon Ingram and Bradley Beal remain out.