Mississippi State at Texas Predictions & Picks – Bulldogs To Avoid Three-TD Blowout in College Football
- Mississippi State tipped to cover +20.5 points at Texas
- Texas are 2-5-0 against spread this season
- Texas expected to win, but offensive inconsistency and penalties are concerns
Mississippi State at Texas Predictions & Picks
Mississippi State are tipped to cover as three-touchdown underdogs in Texas.
The Longhorns eased some of the heat on Steve Sarkisian with the win over Ole Miss, but offensive consistency remains a concern – as do the penalties – and they continue to let teams stick around.
- Texas are 2-5-0 ATS this season
- Mississippi State are 2-0-0 ATS against Texas in the previous 2 seasons
- The Under has hit in 3 of Mississippi State’s 5 SEC games
- The Under has cashed in 4 of Texas’ last 5 games
Head To Head
- Texas lead the all-time series 4-1
- Texas won 45-38 in overtime when the two teams last met in October 2025
Mississippi State Form
Mississippi State head to Texas having failed to build on the win over Missouri, losing three straight games to fall to 4-3.
The Bulldogs began the season with back-to-back non-conference wins, beating UL Monroe 62-13 and Minnesota 38-13.
They then kicked off their SEC schedule with a 41-34 victory at South Carolina, before returning home to down Missouri, 31-24.
Mississippi State’s perfect start finally ended a week later though, as they were blown out at home by Alabama, 56-23.
The Bulldogs then fell to a 31-0 shutout defeat at LSU, and saw their losing skid reach three games with a 23-15 home defeat to Oklahoma.
Texas Form
Texas enter this matchup having snapped a two-game skid with last weekend’s win, which improved their record to 5-2.
The Longhorns opened with a 59-7 blowout of Texas State, and backed that up with a big 24-23 win over an Ohio State team that was ranked number one by AP.
They then beat UTSA 30-6, before kicking off their SEC schedule with a 20-17 victory in Tennessee.
Texas’ run was brought to a halt against Oklahoma though, as they lost 27-24 to their ‘Red River’ rivals, and they then fell to a 27-24 defeat when they hosted Florida.
The Longhorns did avoid a third consecutive loss though, as they knocked off Ole Miss, 34-27.
Verdict
Texas got back to winning ways last week, but we need to see more from the Longhorns before we can start backing them with large handicaps.
Ultimately we expect them to win the game, but we are taking Mississippi State and the points in this one.
Ultimately we expect them to win the game, but we are taking Mississippi State and the points in this one.
Leigh Copson
Sports Editor • 25+ Years Experience, US & Combat Sports Specialist
US sports writer covering the NFL, NBA, NHL, boxing and MMA, with previews, predictions and betting tips across the major American leagues.
During his career at the Press Association and online sports sites including FreeTips and ExpertPicks.com, he has covered some of the biggest sporting events on the planet, including the Super Bowl, the Champions League Final and the World Cup Final.
He has also covered almost every major boxing match and UFC fight card during this time.. His specialist sports are American Football, Basketball, Ice Hockey, Boxing, Mixed Martial Arts and Football.