Bruins vs Penguins Predictions & Picks - Boston Is Too Good at a Coin Flip Price
- Boston Bruins tipped on the moneyline at Pittsburgh, 5 Nov.
- Pastrnak over 3.5 shots on goal is also recommended.
- Bruins' defence ranks third, while Penguins allow 3.47 goals a game.
By Ryan Tucker • Sports Editor & Betting Analyst
Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Fact Checked by: Jeremy Darke•Updated:
Bruins vs Penguins Expert Predictions & Picks
I'm siding with the Boston Bruins and the moneyline in Pittsburgh on Thursday, Nov. 5, at 7 p.m. ET while my top player prop for the game is David Pastrnak over 3.5 shots on goal.
The market is pricing this close to a coin flip, and I don't see it. Boston is 11-4-1, sixth in scoring at 3.62 goals a game and third in goals against at 2.38. Pittsburgh is 5-8-2, allows 3.47 a game (26th) and has dropped 2 straight.
Pastrnak has 4+ shots in 10 of 16 games and 57 shots this season. He's coming off 7 against Vegas, and Pittsburgh's starter, Arturs Silovs, is saving .888.
Key Stats
- Boston is 11-4-1 with the NHL's third-best goals against
- Pittsburgh has allowed 3.47 goals a game, 26th in the league
- Pastrnak has 3+ shots in 3 straight games and 4+ in 10 of 16
- 9 of Pittsburgh's 15 games have been one-goal games or gone to overtime
Head to Head
This is the first meeting this season, last season Boston took two of three, 1-0 and 2-1 at home in January and March, then Pittsburgh won 5-4 in overtime at home in March. All three were decided by a goal, and only the overtime game went over 5.5.
Boston Bruins Form
Defense first. Boston's goals against is top three, and both goalies are holding up. Jeremy Swayman is at .913 and Michael DiPietro at .929 save percentage. Neither is confirmed but Swayman is likely after Monday's start.
Matthew Poitras is day-to-day. The road record is a modest 4 wins in 8, but 2 of the losses came in overtime.
Pittsburgh Penguins Form
Injuries are piling up. Bryan Rust, Ryan Graves and Elmer Soderblom are on injured reserve, and Evgeni Malkin is day-to-day. Rickard Rakell has goals in 4 straight, so he's the one to watch.
Silovs (.888) is projected, not confirmed. The one real risk is that Pittsburgh's games keep getting dragged to overtime, as 5 of 15 have.
Verdict
Boston is the better team at both ends, and the price is treating Pittsburgh like an equal. Give me the Bruins and Pastrnak to keep shooting.
Ryan Tucker
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Ryan is a sports content writer and editor, producing insights and analysis for major sports including NFL, NHL, NBA and more.
Born in Australia, multiple trips to North America deepened his love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for all major sporting events across basketball, ice hockey, baseball, football and Australian sports that are still close to his heart.