Buffalo Sabres vs Florida Panthers Betting Tips - NHL Predictions and Best Bets
I'm taking the Over 5.5 goals when Florida visits Buffalo on Monday, Oct. 12, at 1 p.m. ET. I'm also riding Tage Thompson over 3.5 shots on goal, and that's actually my bigger play on this game.
The story is simple. Buffalo can't keep the puck out of its own net. Nineteen goals against in 5 games is a leaky start. Even a Florida team scoring just 1.8 goals per game should find room here.
Thompson is the other half of it. He's averaging 5.8 shots per game, and Florida is playing without Barkov, the forward who usually draws the job of slowing down guys like him.
Key Stats
- 19 goals allowed by Buffalo in 5 games, or 3.8 per game
- 29 shots on goal for Thompson in 5 games, plus 3 goals and 2 assists
- 3 of Florida's 5 opponents have scored at least 3 goals
- 2 of the last 4 meetings went over 5.5 goals: a 5-3 Buffalo win and a 4-3 Florida win
Head to Head
Buffalo won 3 of 4 meetings last season, including back-to-back road wins in Florida, 5-3 and 3-2. Two of those four games went over 5.5, and another landed on 5. When Buffalo's top line gets going against Florida, these games open up. Monday is the first of three meetings this season.
Buffalo Sabres Form
Buffalo is 2-3, with 11 goals scored and 19 allowed. The attack is fine. The problem is in front of the Buffalo net. Thompson has 5 points and Owen Power has added 5 from the blue line, so the Sabres can trade chances with anyone.
They've played 4 of their 5 games at home, so travel can't explain the goals against. Colten Ellis is projected to start, with Alex Lyon out with an upper-body injury.
Florida Panthers Form
Florida is 2-1-2 and has scored only 9 goals. Matthew Tkachuk leads the team with 3 goals and Sam Bennett has 3 assists, but the depth scoring hasn't shown up. That's no surprise with Barkov and Marchand both out with knee injuries.
The defense has been better, with 12 goals allowed, and Jacob Markstrom is projected in goal. But the Panthers have already been held to 1 goal twice, including Saturday's 4-1 home loss to Minnesota. A defense allowing 3.8 per game is exactly what a slumping offense needs.