Stars at Avalanche Expert Predictions & Picks
I'm taking the Colorado Avalanche moneyline at home against Dallas on Wednesday, Oct. 14, at 8:30 p.m. ET. I'm adding Nathan MacKinnon over 1.5 points at plus money.
This is the second half of a home-and-home. Colorado won 3-2 in Dallas on Tuesday, and MacKinnon set up both of Colorado's even-strength goals. Now the series moves to Denver, where the Avs have scored 17 goals in 3 games.
Dallas can defend, but it can't score. Thirteen goals in 6 games won't keep pace with MacKinnon.
If you are looking for more value in this matchup, a tie in regulation is paying well given 3 of last season's 4 meetings went to OT.
Key Stats
- 5 of 6 games with 2+ points for MacKinnon, who has 12 points and 25 shots
- 2.17 goals per game for Dallas, with 1 goal or fewer in 3 of 6 games
- 5 of 6 games in which Colorado scored first
- 23.8% power play for Colorado, against 14.3% for Dallas
Head to Head
Colorado won the first meeting this season, 3-2 in Dallas. Last season was tight. Three of the four meetings went to a shootout, and Colorado's only regulation win was 2-0. That's why I'm on the moneyline and not the 60-minute line.
Dallas Stars Form
Dallas is 2-3-1, allowing just 1.83 goals per game with two shutouts from Jake Oettinger. But Oettinger played Tuesday, so the Stars are expected to start their backup, Casey DeSmith.
The offense is the problem. Mikko Rantanen has 6 points but didn't register a shot on Tuesday. Matt Duchene is out for three months after core surgery.
Colorado Avalanche Form
Colorado is 4-2 and scoring 4.83 goals per game, the most of any team on this slate. MacKinnon runs everything. He has 5 goals and 7 assists, averages 4.17 shots and plays more than 4 minutes a night on the power play.
Martin Necas scored twice Tuesday and has 7 points. Cale Makar missed Tuesday's game for the birth of his child, and his status for Wednesday is unclear. Colorado won without him, so I'm not changing the pick either way.