Flames vs Oilers Predictions & Picks - McDavid Leads the Charge
- Oilers -1.5 and McDavid over 2.5 points are the main tips.
- Edmonton leads the NHL with 4.33 goals per game; McDavid has 34 points in 12 games.
- Calgary's hot goalie Cooley is a risk, but Oilers' attack is unmatched.
By Ryan Tucker • Sports Editor & Betting Analyst
Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Fact Checked by: Jeremy Darke•Updated:
Flames vs Oilers Expert Predictions & Picks
I'm taking the Edmonton Oilers -1.5 at home against Calgary on Wednesday, Oct. 28, at 8:30 p.m. ET and my best player prop is Connor McDavid over 2.5 points.
Calgary arrives on a 4-game win streak but I'm still laying the goal and a half. When these teams' games are settled in regulation, the margins have been wide. Every one of Edmonton's 6 regulation wins has come by 2+ goals, and so has every one of Calgary's 6 losses. The Oilers lead the NHL at 4.33 goals a game, while the Flames score 2.55.
McDavid has a point in all 12 games and leads the league with 34 points, 10 clear of Leon Draisaitl. He's had 3+ points in 6 of those 12 games, including 3 of his last 5. A price of 2.97 implies roughly a 1-in-3 chance which he is clearly exceeding.
Key Stats
- McDavid has 3+ points in half of his 12 games this season
- Edmonton's power play is converting at 35%
- Calgary is 1-3 on the road and has been outscored 18-8 away from home
- 4.33 goals a game for the Oilers, the most in the NHL
Head to Head
This is the first Battle of Alberta of the season, and Calgary owned the rivalry last year, taking 3 of 4. Those wins were tight though, a 4-3 in a shootout in Edmonton, then 3-2 and 4-3 in Calgary. Edmonton's only win was a 5-1 rout in December. That's the margin I'm backing, though the Flames have kept this matchup close more often than not.
Calgary Flames Form
Devin Cooley is the projected starter and has driven this run, stopping 93 of 97 shots across his last 3 starts. That's the main risk here, because a hot goalie can keep a game within a goal on his own.
Joel Farabee has goals in 3 straight and a point in 5 straight, and Matvei Gridin has scored in 2 straight. Jonathan Huberdeau and Samuel Honzek are out, and Mikael Backlund is day to day.
Edmonton Oilers Form
Edmonton has dropped 2 straight, a 7-2 loss to Toronto and a shootout loss to Detroit, and it's only 3-2-2 at Rogers Place. Tristan Jarry is the projected starter at .860, so the Oilers will need to outscore their goaltending again.
McDavid centers Vasily Podkolzin and Draisaitl, who has 12 goals in 12 games. Mattias Ekholm is out, and Zach Hyman is day to day.
Verdict
Calgary's run is real, but the Flames haven't faced an attack like this one during it. Give me the Oilers by 2 and McDavid to fill the sheet again. Tuesday wasn't kind to my card, so I'm leaning on the most reliable thing in hockey right now.
Ryan Tucker
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Ryan is a sports content writer and editor, producing insights and analysis for major sports including NFL, NHL, NBA and more.
Born in Australia, multiple trips to North America deepened his love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for all major sporting events across basketball, ice hockey, baseball, football and Australian sports that are still close to his heart.