Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Betting Picks & Live Stream – Medvedev to Cover the Handicap at Almaty
- Medvedev is defending his Almaty title and needs points for ATP Finals qualification
- Bublik, boosted by home support, has struggled against top-10 opponents this year
- Medvedev's recent form and head-to-head record make him the recommended pick
Daniil Medvedev returns a shot against Rafael Jodar in Shanghai, ChinaSource: Getty
Daniil Medvedev still needs points to secure his place at the ATP Finals, and he faces a dangerous obstacle in local favourite Alexander Bublik. The Kazakh's unpredictable shot-making and home support make him capable of troubling anyone on his day.
Even so, Medvedev's form over recent weeks has been consistently strong, and returning as defending champion adds extra belief. With Turin qualification on the line, the Russian has every incentive to stay focused and keep Bublik's flair in check.
Medvedev Looks To Improve Mixed Semifinal Record In Almaty
- Medvedev has a 4-4 record in tour-level semifinals this year.
- He has lost seven of his last eight matches against top-20 players in 2026.
- Bublik has a 2-3 record in tour-level semifinals this year.
- He has a 1-6 record against top-10 players in 2026.
HTH - Daniil Medvedev leads 7-1
| Year | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Halle | F | Grass | Alexander Bublik | 6-3, 7-6(4) |
| 2024 | Madrid | R16 | Clay | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(3), 6-4 |
| 2023 | Dubai | R16 | Hard | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4, 6-2 |
| 2021 | Toronto | 2R | Hard | Daniil Medvedev | 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 2021 | Olympics - Tokyo | 1R | Hard | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4, 7-6(8) |
| 2021 | French Open | 1R | Clay | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3, 6-3, 7-5 |
| 2016 | Saint Petersburg | 1R | Hard (Indoor) | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4, 6-0 |
| 2016 | Kazan challenger | R16 | Hard (Indoor) | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2, 7-6(3) |
Medvedev Keeps Title Defence On Track With Commanding Win
Daniil Medvedev reached the semifinals after defeating Terence Atmane in straight sets, 6-4, 6-4. He did not face a single breakpoint and won 91% of his first-serve points during the match.
This is Medvedev’s second semifinal appearance in Almaty. On his debut last year, he won his opening two matches in straight sets, just as he has done this week, before going the distance against James Duckworth and Corentin Moutet in the later rounds to lift the title. He will now look to defend his title and protect his ranking points.
The 30-year-old endured a disappointing North American swing, winning only four matches across four tournaments. However, he has bounced back impressively since arriving in Asia, winning the title in Hangzhou and reaching the semifinals in Beijing and Shanghai. He has carried that momentum into Almaty.
Medvedev has reached eight tour-level semifinals this year, winning his first three but losing four of his most recent five matches at this stage.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Country | Russia |
| Age | Born 11 February 1996 |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | No. 5 |
| Career High | No. 1 (28 February 2022) |
| Elo Ranking | No. 8 |
| Tour-Level Titles | 24 |
Bublik Battles Into Almaty Semifinals With Final In Sight
Alexander Bublik benefited from a favourable draw earlier this week, receiving a first-round bye and a walkover against Fabian Marozsan in the following round. However, he had to work hard to defeat Karen Khachanov in the quarterfinals, winning 4-6, 7-6, 7-6.
This is Bublik’s second indoor hard-court semifinal of the year. He previously reached this stage in Rotterdam but lost to Felix Auger-Aliassime in straight sets. The Kazakh will now aim to reach his first indoor hard-court final since Montpellier in 2024.
Bublik made a solid start to the season, but his level dropped in the following months. He also failed to defend any of the four titles he won last year, leaving him close to dropping out of the top 20 in the rankings.
Bublik has a 2-3 record in tour-level semifinals this year, with all three defeats coming against top-20 opponents. He now faces another high-ranked challenger as he bids to reach the final in Almaty.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Country | Kazakhstan |
| Age | Born 17 June 1997 |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | No. 19 |
| Career High | No. 10 (12 January 2026) |
| Elo Ranking | No. 23 |
| Tour-Level Titles | 9 |
Verdict
Medvedev's form, pedigree and motivation make him the man to back here. Siding with him to win is the main play, with Medvedev -2.5 games on the handicap also looking a solid option.
Tomasz Wilk
Tennis Writer • 10+ Years as a Tennis Analyst & Betting Strategist
Tomasz Wilk is a tennis analyst and betting strategist with a sharp eye for momentum shifts, underdog value and live markets. His work focuses on delivering actionable insights, match previews, and betting tips across ATP and WTA tours.
Combining data and intuition, he aims to help readers stay ahead of the curve in a fast-moving betting landscape.
You can find more from Tomasz at Muckrack.
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