Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz Betting Picks & Live Stream – Medvedev Worth Backing at the Odds in Vienna
- Medvedev is tipped to beat Alcaraz in Vienna, or at least win a set
- Medvedev is on a seven-match indoor hard-court winning streak and recently beat Alcaraz
- Alcaraz has looked shaky since injury, especially on serve
Daniil Medvedev serves the ball to Adrian Mannarino in Vienna, AustriaSource: Getty
Opposing Carlos Alcaraz is rarely a comfortable call, but this feels like one of the rare occasions where it makes sense. Since returning from his injury break, the Spaniard has looked shaky, especially on serve, and he even slipped to a defeat against Zizou Bergs.
Daniil Medvedev has been heading in the opposite direction, producing sensational hard-court tennis over the past two months. He has already beaten Alcaraz once this year, and that belief, combined with his current rhythm, makes him a genuine threat here.
Medvedev Aims to Overcome Alcaraz After Strong Indoor Run
- Medvedev has a 5-4 record in tour-level semifinals this year.
- He has a 2-2 record against top-10 players in 2026.
- Alcaraz has a 4-1 record in tour-level semifinals this year.
- He has an 8-3 record against top-10 players in 2026.
HTH - Carlos Alcaraz leads 6-3
| Year | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Indian Wells | SF | Hard | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3, 7-6(3) |
| 2024 | Beijing | SF | Hard | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-5, 6-3 |
| 2024 | Wimbledon | SF | Grass | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(1), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 2024 | Indian Wells | F | Hard | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(5), 6-1 |
| 2023 | Masters Cup ATP | — | Hard (Indoor) | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 2023 | US Open | SF | Hard | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(3), 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 2023 | Wimbledon | SF | Grass | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 |
| 2023 | Indian Wells | F | Hard | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 2021 | Wimbledon | 2R | Grass | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 |
Medvedev Builds on Resurgence With Another Vienna Semifinal
Daniil Medvedev moved into the semifinals after defeating Adrian Mannarino in straight sets, 6-2, 6-3. He did not face a single break point and converted four of the 11 break points he created during the match.
This is Medvedev’s fifth consecutive semifinal appearance on tour since the start of the Asian swing, highlighting his recent resurgence after a disappointing North American swing, where he won only four matches across four events.
The Russian has a 5-4 record in tour-level semifinals this year, losing four of his last six matches at this stage. He has converted both of his previous semifinal appearances in Vienna into final appearances and will look to maintain that record this week.
Medvedev is currently on a seven-match winning streak on indoor hard courts. He has also won 10 of his last 13 semifinals on the surface and will look to extend that success this week.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Country | Russia |
| Age | Born 11 February 1996 |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | No. 5 |
| Career High | No. 1 (28 February 2022) |
| Elo Ranking | No. 7 |
| Tour-Level Titles | 25 |
Alcaraz Targets First Vienna Final After Reaching Last Four
Carlos Alcaraz secured his place in the semifinals after defeating Tommy Paul in straight sets, 6-4, 7-6. He saved all five break points he faced and converted one of the four break points he created.
Despite playing a tiebreak in both sets, Alcaraz closed out the match in straight sets. This is his second semifinal since returning from injury, and he converted the previous one into a title in Tokyo.
He has played five tour-level semifinals this year and converted four of them into finals. His only defeat at this stage came against Medvedev at Indian Wells earlier this year.
Apart from the ATP Finals, Alcaraz has played three tour-level semifinals on indoor hard courts and lost two of them. One of those defeats came in Vienna in 2021, and he will be looking for a better result this week.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Country | Spain |
| Age | Born 5 May 2003 |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | No. 3 |
| Career High | No. 1 (12 September 2022) |
| Elo Ranking | No. 2 |
| Tour-Level Titles | 28 |
Verdict
With Medvedev priced north of 3.00, the upset is too tempting to pass up. A small punt on the Russian to win outright makes sense, and anyone wanting a cushion can turn to Medvedev to win a set instead.
Tomasz Wilk
Tennis Writer • 10+ Years as a Tennis Analyst & Betting Strategist
Tomasz Wilk is a tennis analyst and betting strategist with a sharp eye for momentum shifts, underdog value and live markets. His work focuses on delivering actionable insights, match previews, and betting tips across ATP and WTA tours.
Combining data and intuition, he aims to help readers stay ahead of the curve in a fast-moving betting landscape.
You can find more from Tomasz at Muckrack.
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