Daniil Medvedev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Betting Picks & Live Stream – Medvedev to Defend His Almaty Crown
- Medvedev reached the Almaty final without dropping a set and is aiming to defend his title
- Basilashvili reached his first tour-level final since 2022 and seeks his first title since 2021
- Medvedev leads their H2H 1-0, with his consistency making him the clear favourite
Daniil Medvedev reacts after a point against Jan-Lennard Struff in Shanghai Source: Getty
Daniil Medvedev has carried his strong hard-court form all the way to the Almaty final, reaching the title match without breaking much of a sweat. He now stands one win away from defending his crown and giving his ATP Finals hopes a major boost.
Standing in his way is Nikoloz Basilashvili, a player capable of brilliance but far too erratic to rely on. Against an opponent prone to such swings in level, Medvedev's consistency and composure should prove decisive.
Medvedev Targets Fourth Tour-Level Title Of 2026
- Medvedev has a 9-3 career record in indoor hard-court finals.
- He has a perfect 11-0 record against players outside the top 100 this year.
- Basilashvili has a 5-4 record in tour-level finals.
- He has a 3-11 career record against top-five players.
HTH - Daniil Medvedev leads 1-0
| Year | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Vienna | 1R | Hard (Indoor) | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2, 6-2 |
Medvedev Moves Within One Win Of Successful Title Defence
Daniil Medvedev moved into the final in Almaty after Alexander Bublik retired due to injury while trailing 3-6. Medvedev has not lost a set this week and comfortably defeated Sho Shimabukuro and Terence Atmane in the earlier rounds.
This is his second consecutive final in Almaty. Last year, he reached the final on his debut and defeated Corentin Moutet in three sets to lift the title. He will now look to repeat that achievement this week.
After a strong start to the season, Medvedev struggled to produce deep runs during the clay and grass-court swings and also suffered early-round exits in North American events.
However, he turned his season around at the start of the Asian swing, winning the title in Hangzhou and reaching the semifinals in Beijing and Shanghai.
Medvedev has played four tour-level finals this year and won three of them. On indoor hard courts, he has a strong 9-3 career record in finals and will look to improve that mark this week.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Country | Russia |
| Age | Born 11 February 1996 |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | No. 5 |
| Career High | No. 1 (28 February 2022) |
| Elo Ranking | No. 8 |
| Tour-Level Titles | 24 |
Basilashvili Targets First Tour Title Since 2021
Nikoloz Basilashvili secured his place in the final after defeating Stefanos Tsitsipas in three sets, 6-4, 6-7, 6-3. He saved all three break points he faced and won 92% of his first-serve points during the match.
The 34-year-old has struggled with consistency and results across all levels this year. He played 30 events before this week, with 24 ending either in qualifying or in the first round, and came close to dropping out of the top 150 in the rankings a few months ago.
However, his semifinal run in Chengdu and his progress this week have confirmed his return to the top 100 in the rankings. He will now look to make the most of the momentum he has built by winning the title.
This is Basilashvili's first tour-level final since 2022. He has a 5-4 career record in finals and has not won a title since Munich in 2021.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Country | Georgia |
| Age | Born 23 February 1992 |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | No. 128 |
| Career High | No. 16 (27 May 2019) |
| Elo Ranking | No. 156 |
| Tour-Level Titles | 5 |
Verdict
Medvedev looks well placed to complete back-to-back titles in Almaty. Backing him to win in straight sets is the main play, with Medvedev -3.5 games on the handicap also worth considering.
Tomasz Wilk
Tennis Writer • 10+ Years as a Tennis Analyst & Betting Strategist
Tomasz Wilk is a tennis analyst and betting strategist with a sharp eye for momentum shifts, underdog value and live markets. His work focuses on delivering actionable insights, match previews, and betting tips across ATP and WTA tours.
Combining data and intuition, he aims to help readers stay ahead of the curve in a fast-moving betting landscape.
You can find more from Tomasz at Muckrack.
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