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Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli Predictions & Picks – Canelo To Regain Super-Middleweight Crown
- Canelo is predicted to reclaim WBC super-middleweight title by decision against Mbilli
- Alvarez’s experience and ability to go the distance give him the edge
- Mbilli recently went to a split decision draw; has not faced an opponent of Canelo's caliber
Canelo Alvarez (Getty Images for Netflix)
Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli Predictions & Picks
Canelo Alvarez is tipped to regain the WBC super-middleweight title by decision.
Alvarez was out-boxed by Terence Crawford as he surrendered his undisputed crown last year, but with the greatest respect to Christian Mbilli, he does not have the skills to do that.
Canelo can punish Mbilli’s aggressiveness over 12 rounds to become world champion once again.
- Canelo Alvarez has won 12 of his 13 super-middleweight title fights
- Each of Canelo Alvarez’s last 8 fights have gone the distance
- Christian Mbilli went to a split decision draw with Lester Martinez last time out
Canelo Alvarez Form
Canelo Alvarez is a former undisputed world super-middleweight champion with a professional record of 63-3-2 (39 KOs).
Having held world titles at light-middleweight and middleweight, Alvarez debuted in this weight class in 2018 after winning his rematch with Gennady Golovkin at middleweight.
The 36-year-old Mexican wasted little time in becoming a world champion at the weight, knocking out Rocky Fielding in the third round in December 2018.
He then won world titles at middleweight and light-heavyweight, before returning to super-middleweight to beat Callum Smith on points for the WBA (Super) WBC and Ring Magazine titles.
Canelo successfully defended those belts with a third-round stoppage of Avni Yildirim, and then added the WBO championship with an eighth-round stoppage of Billy Joe Saunders.
He became undisputed champion in November 2021 with an 11th round knockout of Caleb Plant, and after a failed attempt to become light-heavyweight champion once again, he returned to his usual weight class for a dominant run.
Gennady Golovkin, John Ryder, Jermell Charlo, Jaime Munguia, Edgar Berlanga and William Scull were all beaten by unanimous decision between September 2022 and May 2025.
However, Canelo’s reign was finally brought to an end last September, when he dropped a unanimous decision to Terence Crawford.
Christian Mbilli Form
Christian Mbilli is the current WBC super-middleweight champion with an unbeaten professional record of 29-0-1 (24 KOs).
Mbilli tuned professional in February 2017 and won several minor titles in the first few years of his career as he competed predominantly in Canada and his native France.
His first truly notable fight came in August 2024 when he took on Sergiy Derevyanchenko – a man who had previously fought for a world title and shared the ring with the likes of Daniel Jacobs, Gennady Golovkin and current world champion Jaime Munguia.
The 31-year-old won the fight too, out-pointing Derevyanchenko over 10 rounds in Quebec City.
That earned Mbilli a fight for the interim WBC super-middleweight title in June of last year, and he made quick work of the bout as he knocked out Maciej Sulecki in the first round.
He was later upgraded to full champion status, but his first defence was an underwhelming one as he went to a split decision draw with Lester Martinez in September 2025.
Verdict
Christian Mbilli does pack a punch, as evidence by 24 knockout wins, but he has never shared the ring with somebody on Canelo Alvarez’s level, and that draw with Lester Martinez hardly instils confidence.
Canelo may be past his prime at this point, but he is still more than good enough to outbox Mbilli over 12 rounds.
Canelo may be past his prime at this point, but he is still more than good enough to outbox Mbilli over 12 rounds.
Leigh Copson
Sports Editor • 25+ Years Experience, US & Combat Sports Specialist
US sports writer covering the NFL, NBA, NHL, boxing and MMA, with previews, predictions and betting tips across the major American leagues.
During his career at the Press Association and online sports sites including FreeTips and ExpertPicks.com, he has covered some of the biggest sporting events on the planet, including the Super Bowl, the Champions League Final and the World Cup Final.
He has also covered almost every major boxing match and UFC fight card during this time.. His specialist sports are American Football, Basketball, Ice Hockey, Boxing, Mixed Martial Arts and Football.