Our Tip
CFL Playoff Spread Parlay Oct. 31 - Argos and Lions Cover
- Tip: Toronto Argonauts -4.5 and BC Lions -6.5 both to cover at home.
- Kelly returns for Toronto; BC face a Riders secondary missing starting safety Lokombo.
- Winnipeg's strong run game and Saskatchewan's healthy offence are potential concerns.
CFL Playoff Spread Parlay Oct. 31
CFL Playoff Spread Parlay for Saturday Oct. 31
I'm building Saturday's CFL playoff parlay around two home teams who handle these opponents well, the Toronto Argonauts -4.5 and the BC Lions -6.5, both to cover.
The two legs pay 3.41 combined at Stake.
Both semi-finals put the better quarterback at home against a road team that limped into the playoffs. Toronto gets Chad Kelly back against a Winnipeg side that went 4-7 against playoff teams and may be without Zach Collaros.
BC gets Nathan Rourke against the worst pass defence of the six playoff teams. The Lions won both home meetings with Saskatchewan this season by 14 and 7.
Key Stats
- Winnipeg's only road win over a playoff team this season came against a BC side resting most of its starters
- Rourke has thrown for 300+ yards in 11 of the 13 games he started and finished, and averaged 353 a game against Saskatchewan
- Saskatchewan went 2-4 after Labour Day, and both wins came against Montreal and Edmonton backups
Leg 1: Toronto Argonauts -4.5 (Blue Bombers vs Argonauts, 1 p.m. ET)
Toronto is 33-17-1 at home in the playoffs, and Kelly was sharp in the season series with 610 yards, four touchdowns and a 68.7% completion rate. Collaros is listed as questionable with a rib injury, so Dru Brown looks likely to start. He threw three interceptions in his two starts against the Argos.
The worry is the run game. Brady Oliveira led the league with more than 1,400 rushing yards, and Toronto gives up the third-most rushing yards a game. The last meeting was a 30-28 Toronto win, but Kelly has had a long layoff and I'd still rather have him than a backup on the road.
Leg 2: BC Lions -6.5 (Roughriders vs Lions, 4.30 p.m. ET)
BC won 9 of its last 12 regular-season games, and the two losses at the end came with starters resting. Rourke threw six touchdowns in the last two meetings. Saskatchewan will also be without starting safety Nelson Lokombo, which leaves backup Jaxon Ford in the secondary against a quarterback in this kind of form.
This is the tighter leg. Trevor Harris completed 75.7% of his passes for 1,070 yards against BC this season, and the Riders are as healthy as they've been all year with Samuel Emilus, Kian Schaffer-Baker and KeeSean Johnson all back. The 31-24 win in September covered by only half a point, but I trust Rourke at BC Place to pull away late.
Verdict
Toronto and BC both cover at home, with Kelly too much for a Winnipeg side likely starting its backup and Rourke pulling away from a Saskatchewan secondary missing its starting safety.
Jeremy Darke
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Writer & Expert Betting Analyst
Jeremy is a sports journalist and analyst covering major US leagues including NBA, NHL and NFL, seeking out player props and value.
From playing rugby, ice hockey, tennis and soccer in his home country of Australia to travelling the world covering US sports, he has found a niche in betting expertise.
His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster here at ExpertPicks.com.