Home / MLB / Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians Predictions & Picks – Guardians To Regain Lead In MLB Playoffs Series
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians Predictions & Picks – Guardians To Regain Lead In MLB Playoffs Series
- Cleveland favored to take series lead in last ALCS home game
- Parker Messick has contained the Rays' offense despite previous losses
- Playoff series is tied 2-2 after Tampa Bay's 7-3 win on October 17
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians Predictions & Picks
Cleveland are tipped to regain their series lead in their final home game in the ALCS.
Parker Messick's win/loss record against Tampa this season makes for ugly reading, but the All-Star left-hander has given up very little to the Rays in those losses and he has been outstanding in the playoffs so far.
If he gets more support from the bats, the Guardians can bounce back in Game 5.
- Cleveland Guardians are 6-3 in their last 9 home games
- The two starting pitchers have a combined ERA of 5.23
- The Under has hit in all 3 of Parker Messicks starts against Tampa this season
- The Under has cashedin 2 of Drew Rasmussen's starts against Cleveland in 2026
Head To Head
- Cleveland Guardians lead the all-time series 117-93
- This MLB playoffs series is tied at 2-2
- Tampa Bay Rays won 7-3 when the two teams last met on October 17
Tampa Bay Rays Form
Tampa Bay go into their final road game of this series having registered their fifth win in seven postseason games, levelling up this ALCS at 2-2.
| Date | Playoff Opposition | W/L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct-03 | vs New York Yankees | W | 1-0 |
| Oct-05 | vs New York Yankees | W | 5-2 |
| Oct-07 | at New York Yankees | W | 4-3 |
| Oct-12 | vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 3-7 |
| Oct-13 | vs Cleveland Guardians | W | 3-1 |
| Oct-15 | at Cleveland Guardians | L | 2-3 |
| Oct-17 | at Cleveland Guardians | W | 7-3 |
Cleveland Guardians Form
Cleveland enter their last home game of this series on the back of their fourth defeat in nine playoff games, and locked at two wins apiece with the Rays.
| Date | Playoff Opposition | W/L | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct-03 | vs Chicago White Sox | L | 0-3 |
| Oct-05 | vs Chicago White Sox | L | 3-4 |
| Oct-07 | at Chicago White Sox | W | 9-3 |
| Oct-08 | at Chicago White Sox | W | 9-5 |
| Oct-10 | vs Chicago White Sox | W | 2-0 |
| Oct-12 | at Tampa Bay Rays | W | 7-3 |
| Oct-13 | at Tampa Bay Rays | L | 1-3 |
| Oct-15 | vs Tampa Bay Rays | W | 3-2 |
| Oct-17 | vs Tampa Bay Rays | L | 3-7 |
Starting Pitchers
| Player | Team | Record | ERA | Strikeouts | Innings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays | 16-5 | 2.67 | 174 | 172.0 |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians | 12-9 | 2.56 | 231 | 226.0 |
Verdict
Parker Messick is yet to beat Tampa as a starter this season, but that could change in Game 5.
Despite his ugly win/loss record, the Guardians starter has shut down the Rays' offense in 2026, so a little more support from his bats could see him finally break his duck as Cleveland take a 3-2 lead.
Leigh Copson
Sports Editor • 25+ Years Experience, US & Combat Sports Specialist
US sports writer covering the NFL, NBA, NHL, boxing and MMA, with previews, predictions and betting tips across the major American leagues.
During his career at the Press Association and online sports sites including FreeTips and ExpertPicks.com, he has covered some of the biggest sporting events on the planet, including the Super Bowl, the Champions League Final and the World Cup Final.
He has also covered almost every major boxing match and UFC fight card during this time.. His specialist sports are American Football, Basketball, Ice Hockey, Boxing, Mixed Martial Arts and Football.