Heat vs Clippers Prediction and Picks - Klay Finds His Range
- Klay Thompson is tipped to hit at least three threes and score double digits.
- Thompson's minutes and shot volume have increased, with Miami playing at the league's second-fastest pace.
- Clippers' high turnover rate should create more transition opportunities for Thompson.
Miami Heat vs LA Clippers Prediction and Pick - ExpertPicks
Miami will run a sliding Clippers side off the floor in Inglewood, and Klay Thompson will do plenty of the damage from deep.
Klay Thompson's shooting is the angle in this Heat vs Clippers prediction, with the Miami Heat visiting an LA Clippers side on a six-game skid at Intuit Dome for a 10.30 p.m. ET tip.
I'm passing on the side and the total. Miami's defence is too leaky to trust at -5.5, and Thompson's role is the cleaner read.
His minutes have jumped. He played under 18 minutes in three of his first five games, then 26 in each of the last two, and the shots came with them. Miami play at the second-fastest pace in the league, and the Clippers are turning it over 20.1 times a game, so a lot of his looks should come in transition before the defence is set.
The Clippers allowing just 12.4 threes a game is the one number against this, but turnovers turn into open threes that half-court defence never gets to contest.
The points prop rides on the same shots. Since the start of last season, he's scored 10 or more in 39 of the 41 games where he hit three threes.
Key Stats and Trends
- Thompson has made 11 threes over his last two games.
- He has hit three or more threes in 6 of his last 10 games, going back to last season.
- He has scored 10 or more in 7 of his last 10.
- Miami are attempting 38.6 threes a game.
Head to Head
Miami won the 2025-26 season series 2-0, including a 120-119 win at Intuit Dome in November. Tonight is the first meeting of the new season.
The last meeting was December 1 at Kaseya Center, a 140-123 Heat win. Miami won the first quarter 35-24 and led 76-56 at half-time, with Norman Powell scoring 30 and Bam Adebayo adding 27 points, 14 rebounds and five threes.
Heat Form
Miami are 2-5 and allowing 123.9 points a game, with the 26th-ranked defensive rating.
Monday's 138-117 loss to the Lakers was within seven at half-time before the Lakers won the third quarter 32-21, and Luka Doncic finished with 42 points and 13 assists. Three nights earlier, Miami put 145 on Indiana, with Thompson scoring 25 and making seven threes.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is probable with a sprained right wrist, according to ESPN's injury report, so Miami should have their best player.
Clippers Form
The Clippers are 1-6 and haven't won since opening night, the longest losing streak in the league.
Monday's 125-118 loss to Toronto summed it up. They led by 13 going into the fourth quarter, then gave up 47 points in the period as Scottie Barnes scored 15 of his 22 late. Kobe Sanders had 26 in the defeat, a night after a 124-112 loss in Golden State.
Bradley Beal (knee) and Brandon Ingram (Achilles) remain out, per ESPN's injury report, which leaves Darius Garland to carry most of the scoring.
Verdict
Miami should win in Inglewood, and Thompson's bigger role makes him the bet, with three threes and double figures.
Jeremy Darke
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Writer & Expert Betting Analyst
Jeremy is a sports journalist and analyst covering major US leagues including NBA, NHL and NFL, seeking out player props and value.
From playing rugby, ice hockey, tennis and soccer in his home country of Australia to travelling the world covering US sports, he has found a niche in betting expertise.
His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster here at ExpertPicks.com.