Heat vs Jazz Predictions & Picks - Utah's Missing Scorers Keep This Under
- Under 228.5 points is tipped for Jazz vs Heat due to Utah's depleted offence.
- Utah has scored 100 or fewer in four of its last six and is missing key players.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo over 12.5 rebounds is also recommended.
By Ryan Tucker • Sports Editor & Betting Analyst
Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Fact Checked by: Leigh Copson•Updated:
Heat vs Jazz Expert Predictions & Picks
I'm taking the Under 228.5 in Utah on Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 9:00 p.m. ET and the Greek Freak Giannis Antetokounmpo over 12.5 rebounds.
The Jazz have lost eight straight, and the offense is the reason. Utah ranks 29th in offensive rating, scores 106.2 points a game and shoots 32.1% from three.
Now it's without Keyonte George, its leading scorer at 21.1 points a game, plus Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic. Utah has scored 100 or fewer in four of its last six, and 7 of its 10 games have gone under 228.5.
Giannis is averaging 12.8 rebounds and has topped 12.5 in four of his last five. Utah gives up 22.1 rebounds a game to forwards, the third-most in the league.
Key Stats
- Utah has scored 100 or fewer in four of its last six games
- The Jazz rank 29th in offensive rating and are missing George, Jackson Jr. and Nurkic
- Utah's games have gone under 228.5 in 7 of 10
- Giannis has 14 or more rebounds in four of his last five
Head to Head
The teams split last season's two meetings, and each won on the road. Miami won 147-116 at Delta Center in January, a 263-point game. Utah won 115-111 in Miami in February, which stayed under at 226.
That Utah team won 22 games and ranked third in pace. This one ranks 15th.
Miami Heat Form
Miami's defense is the risk to the Under. The Heat rank 25th in defensive rating, allow 121.1 points a game and play at the third-fastest pace in the league.
The road games have been tighter, though: 220 and 222 points in Miami's last two. Giannis (wrist) is a game-time call, and Bam Adebayo adds 18.5 points and 8.4 rebounds a game.
Utah Jazz Form
Injuries come first. George (ankle), Jackson Jr. (knee), Nurkic (foot) and Vince Williams Jr. are out, and Lauri Markkanen (wrist) is a game-time call after missing Sunday's loss in Minnesota.
That leaves Darryn Peterson (14.8 points) and Ace Bailey (11.9) carrying a lot of shots. Utah is 1-4 at home with a -11.2 net rating, which ranks 26th.
Verdict
Utah can't score at full strength, and tonight it's down its best scorer. I'm on the Under and backing Giannis to clean the glass. I've seen better offenses at a church picnic.
Ryan Tucker
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Ryan is a sports content writer and editor, producing insights and analysis for major sports including NFL, NHL, NBA and more.
Born in Australia, multiple trips to North America deepened his love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for all major sporting events across basketball, ice hockey, baseball, football and Australian sports that are still close to his heart.