Timberwolves vs Pelicans Predictions & Picks - Minnesota's Defense Ends the Streak
- Minnesota Timberwolves tipped to cover -4.5 at New Orleans.
- Gobert over 11.5 rebounds is the player prop, based on past dominance.
- Pelicans' turnover issues and Minnesota's top defence support the selections.
By Ryan Tucker • Sports Editor & Betting Analyst
Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Fact Checked by: Leigh Copson•Updated:
Timberwolves vs Pelicans Expert Predictions & Picks
Minnesota Timberwolves to cover the -4.5 line as road favourites in New Orleans on Friday, Nov. 6, at 8:00 p.m. ET. Rudy Gobert over 11.5 rebounds is the player prop.
The Pelicans have won four straight, and the line feels like it's respecting the streak more than the matchup. Minnesota is 6-3 with the second-best net rating in the league and the third-best defense, allowing 107.6 points a game.
New Orleans is giving it away 17.4 times a game, and Minnesota forces 17.1 turnovers.
Gobert is the prop. He's averaging 11.9 rebounds and pulled down 13, 12 and 16 against New Orleans last season. The Wolves are also grabbing 60.6 rebounds a game as a team.
Key Stats
- Minnesota ranks second in net rating and third in defensive rating
- New Orleans averages 17.4 turnovers and shoots 31.7% from three
- The Wolves won both games in New Orleans last season, by 7 in overtime and by 9
- Gobert grabbed 13, 12 and 16 rebounds against the Pelicans last season
Head to Head
Minnesota went 3-1 against New Orleans last season. Both wins at Smoothie King Center came in the same week in December, 149-142 in overtime and 125-116.
The teams split in Minnesota, with the Pelicans winning 119-115 in February and the Wolves taking a 132-126 shootout in April. All four games went over 230, but Gobert owned the glass every time he played.
Minnesota Timberwolves Form
Anthony Edwards (knee surgery) is still out, along with Donte DiVincenzo and Enrique Freeman. Minnesota is 3-2 without Edwards, and both losses came against Golden State and on the second night of a back-to-back in San Antonio.
The defense hasn't missed a beat. Ayo Dosunmu has picked up the scoring with 19.8 points over his last five, and LaMelo Ball dropped 34 on Milwaukee. Terrence Shannon Jr. (hip) is a game-time call.
New Orleans Pelicans Form
Turnovers are the issue. The Pelicans had 25 against Atlanta and 20 against Sacramento and still won, which won't fly against this defense.
Zion Williamson is averaging 21.5 points, but Minnesota is allowing just 36.1 points a game to forwards, the third-fewest in the league. Trey Murphy III (knee) is a game-time call after missing Wednesday, and Yves Missi is out. New Orleans went 17-24 at home last season.
Verdict
Minnesota is the better team, plays the better defense and has owned this matchup. I'm laying the 4.5 and taking Gobert to clean up the misses.
Ryan Tucker
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Ryan is a sports content writer and editor, producing insights and analysis for major sports including NFL, NHL, NBA and more.
Born in Australia, multiple trips to North America deepened his love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for all major sporting events across basketball, ice hockey, baseball, football and Australian sports that are still close to his heart.