Avalanche vs Maple Leafs Predictions & Picks - Colorado Wins Big or Not at All
- Colorado -1.5 puckline and MacKinnon 2+ points are the main tips.
- Avalanche win big, while Toronto have lost 4 of 5 and struggle to score.
- Colorado's road record is 3-5, and starting goalies are unconfirmed.
By Ryan Tucker • Sports Editor & Betting Analyst
Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Fact Checked by: Jeremy Darke•Updated:
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs Expert Predictions & Picks
I'm backing the Colorado Avalanche on the -1.5 puckline in Toronto on Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 7 p.m. ET, and wherever there are goals Nathan MacKinnon gets points, take him to record 2+ points.
Colorado doesn't do close wins. Toronto is in a rut, with 4 losses in 5 and a 4-0 home loss to New Jersey on Sunday. I'm fading the Leafs until they prove otherwise.
Before I bet any puck line, I check it against our NHL puck line betting stats. Colorado passes the test with 9 of its 10 wins coming by 2+ goals which is an insane amount considering the league average is just 58%. At a 2.58 price, I'll take it.
The Avalanche score 4.00 goals a game, third in the league, and put up 30.6 shots a night. Toronto allows 29.6 shots, 27th, and is 4-7 at home.
MacKinnon has 2+ points in 10 of 18 games, and the 2.10 price implies 48%. He had 3 points on Saturday with nearly six minutes on the power play.
Key Stats
- MacKinnon has 30 points and a point in 13 of his 18 games
- Toronto has scored 12 goals and allowed 18 in its last 5
- The Avalanche have won by 2+ in all but one of their 10 wins
- 27th in shots allowed, the Leafs give up 29.6 a game
Head to Head
Toronto won the only meeting this season, 6-3 in Denver on Oct. 10 (over 6.5). Mackenzie Blackwood stopped just 77% of the shots he faced that night.
Last season, the teams split. The Leafs won 4-3 in overtime in Denver in January (over 6.5), and Colorado won 4-1 in Toronto two weeks later (under 6.5, Avalanche -1.5 covered).
Colorado Avalanche Form
The offense is the reason to buy. MacKinnon, Martin Necas and Artturi Lehkonen have combined for 31 goals, and Necas had 2 goals and 2 assists on Saturday. Blackwood is coming off a 4-0 shutout and is the projected starter, not confirmed.
The risk is the road record because Colorado are 3-5 away from home.
Toronto Maple Leafs Form
Goals have dried up. Toronto has only 2 in its last two home games, and Kirill Marchenko (4 power-play goals) is on injured reserve with Max Domi. Special teams are the bright spot, with the power play and penalty kill both ranked fifth.
The crease is unsettled. Sergei Bobrovsky (.886) and Anthony Stolarz (.907) are both in the mix, and neither is confirmed.
Verdict
Colorado either wins by a pile or loses, and Toronto can't score right now. Give me the Avalanche -1.5 and MacKinnon to do MacKinnon things.
Ryan Tucker
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Ryan is a sports content writer and editor, producing insights and analysis for major sports including NFL, NHL, NBA and more.
Born in Australia, multiple trips to North America deepened his love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for all major sporting events across basketball, ice hockey, baseball, football and Australian sports that are still close to his heart.