Senators vs Sabres Prediction and Picks - Props Over Winner
- Batherson to score, Thompson 4+ shots, Quinn to score are the main tips.
- Batherson has a point in nine of his last ten games.
- No recommendation on side or total; focus is on player props.
Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction and Pick
Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction and Pick - ExpertPicks
Tage Thompson has put 12 shots on goal in Buffalo's last two games, and he's the reason to bet this one.
The Ottawa Senators make the short trip to KeyBank Center to face the Buffalo Sabres, and my Senators vs Sabres prediction leaves the side and total alone for the 7.30 p.m. ET puck drop and goes straight to the players.
Drake Batherson is in the best form of his season. He has a point in nine of his last 10 games and in every one of his last five, and at 1.74 he's the strongest bet on the card.
Thompson is shooting at a rate few players can match. He's had four or more shots on goal in 10 of 14 games, including eight in Saturday's win in Los Angeles, and 2.22 is a generous price for a player averaging 4.5 a night.
Jack Quinn has scored in seven of Buffalo's 14 games. He's found the net in three of his last five, and with Ottawa killing only 72.9% of their penalties, 3.30 is a price I'll take.
Key Stats and Trends
- Ottawa have scored first in 11 of their 16 games.
- Buffalo have conceded 3.50 goals a game.
- Batherson has nine goals and nine assists in 16 games.
- Quinn has eight goals on 40 shots, including two on the power play.
Head to Head
Buffalo won the 2025-26 season series 2-1, with an 8-4 home win and a 3-2 overtime win in Ottawa before the Senators won the last game 4-1. Tonight is the first of four meetings this season.
The last meeting was April 2, 2026, at Canadian Tire Centre, where Ottawa won 4-1. Mattias Samuelsson put Buffalo ahead in the second, but Dylan Cozens tied it and Lars Eller scored the winner at 5.55 of the third before two empty-net goals.
Senators Form
Ottawa are 9-6-1 and have scored 21 goals in their last five games.
Saturday's 5-1 win in San Jose was built on three second-period goals, including Batherson's go-ahead goal at 5.04. On Sunday in Anaheim, the Senators led 3-0 after the first, then gave up six straight goals, four of them on the power play, and lost 6-3.
Linus Ullmark is out with a lower-body injury, according to ESPN's preview, which leaves Ottawa without their best goalie. Warren Foegele, William Eklund and Andre Burakovsky are also out. Ottawa haven't confirmed whether Jonas Johansson or Samuel Ersson starts.
Sabres Form
Buffalo have won three straight and haven't played since Saturday.
Thursday's 7-6 win in Anaheim was a Thompson hat trick, with two of his goals coming 15 seconds apart late in the second. On Saturday, Quinn opened the scoring on the power play in Los Angeles, and Thompson won it 3-2 with a power-play goal at 13.40 of the third.
Zach Benson is day to day, per ESPN, which could cost Buffalo one of their top forwards. Matt Grzelcyk, Conor Timmins and Alex Lyon are among the players out. Buffalo haven't confirmed whether Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen or Colten Ellis starts.
Verdict
Neither side nor the total clears my bar, so I'm backing the players in form, with Batherson on the scoresheet, Thompson shooting and Quinn scoring.
Jeremy Darke
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Writer & Expert Betting Analyst
Jeremy is a sports journalist and analyst covering major US leagues including NBA, NHL and NFL, seeking out player props and value.
From playing rugby, ice hockey, tennis and soccer in his home country of Australia to travelling the world covering US sports, he has found a niche in betting expertise.
His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster here at ExpertPicks.com.