Jiri Lehecka's price looks far too tempting to ignore here, even if the Czech has not done anything particularly spectacular in this tournament.
The bigger concern is Carlos Alcaraz, who has been far from convincing since returning from his injury break, needing to battle through tough matches and still appearing short of his best physical level. That makes this a good opportunity to take a chance on Lehecka causing an outright upset.
Lehecka Chases A Landmark Victory Against Alcaraz
- Alcaraz has a 22–1 record against players outside the Top 20 this year.
- He has a 5–1 record against players outside the Top 20 in tour-level finals.
- Lehecka has a 2–6 career record in tour-level finals.
- He has a 1–3 record against Top 5 players in 2026.
HTH - Carlos Alcaraz leads 3-1
| Year | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US Open | QF | Hard | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 |
| 2025 | Queen's Club | F | Grass | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-2 |
| 2025 | Doha | QF | Hard | Jiri Lehecka | 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 |
| 2023 | Queen's Club | R16 | Grass | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2, 6-3 |
Carlos Alcaraz Fights Back To Reach Another Tokyo Final
Carlos Alcaraz reached the final again in Tokyo after defeating Jaume Munar from a set down in the semifinals, winning 5-7, 6-3, 6-1. He squandered a 5-3 lead and lost the opening set but showed impressive resilience in the remaining sets to complete the comeback.
Despite still being on the comeback trail and not yet at his best, he continues to fight and bounce back in difficult situations. He has lost his serve at least three times in three of his four matches this week, but has repeatedly shown his ability to respond when under pressure.
This is a much-needed result for him after he missed more than four months due to a wrist injury and returned only at the US Open, where he lost in the quarterfinals during his title defence campaign.
He owns a 27-9 career record in tour-level finals, with six of those nine losses coming against either Jannik Sinner or Novak Djokovic at this stage.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Country | Spain |
| Age | Born 5 May 2003 |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | No. 3 |
| Career High | No. 1 (12 September 2022) |
| Elo Ranking | No. 2 |
| Tour-Level Titles | 27 |
Jiri Lehecka Reaches Tokyo Final In Strong Fashion
Jiri Lehecka moved into the final after defeating Valentin Vacherot in straight sets in Tokyo, winning 6-4, 6-3. He did not face a single break point and converted three of the six break opportunities he created during the match.
The Czech started the week with two back-to-back three-set matches but has won his two most recent matches in straight sets, highlighting his rising confidence and form. He will now look to make the most of this opportunity by winning the title.
This is a much-needed result for him as he has to defend his fourth-round points at the Shanghai Masters in the coming week, but this run has helped relieve some of that pressure.
He has a 2-6 record in tour-level finals in his career, with both of his victories coming in Australia and against players ranked outside the top 50.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Country | Czech Republic |
| Age | Born 8 November 2001 |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| World Ranking | No. 23 |
| Career High | No. 12 (25 May 2026) |
| Elo Ranking | No. 14 |
| Tour-Level Titles | 2 |