Pacers vs Mavericks Prediction and Picks - Siakam Steps Up
- Dallas are tipped to win, but Indiana's Siakam and Nembhard are set for big individual performances.
- Nembhard has exceeded 25 points, rebounds and assists in four of five games without Haliburton.
- Dallas have struggled in back-to-back games, while Indiana perform better on the road.
Pacers vs Mavericks Prediction and Picks
Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction and Pick - ExpertPicks
Dallas should win this one, but Indiana's two main men are going to fill the box score while it happens.
With Tyrese Haliburton still sidelined, the Indiana Pacers lean on two players more than ever in this Pacers vs Mavericks prediction, visiting a Dallas Mavericks side on the second night of a home back-to-back for an 8 p.m. ET tip.
I'm not touching the spread. Dallas are 3.5-point favourites, but they covered that number only 21 times last season, and tired legs after Sunday's blowout make me even less keen.
Pascal Siakam is the first-choice scorer with Haliburton out, and Dallas don't have an obvious answer for him. He went 8 of 13 for 23 points against them in October, and the Mavs played Sunday, so there's a decent chance their rotation is shorter and slower tonight.
Andrew Nembhard is my favourite bet on the card. With Haliburton gone, he's running the offence and playing between 30 and 38 minutes a night. His points, rebounds and assists come from one job, so this line asks him to do what he already does every night.
His 18 in Mexico City is the warning. The altitude and a 27-point first-half hole flattened the whole team that night, and I'm treating it as a one-off rather than a trend.
Key Stats and Trends
- Siakam scored 20 or more points in 49 of his 62 games last season.
- He's hit 20 in 8 of his last 10 games.
- Nembhard has 25 or more points, rebounds and assists in 4 of his 5 games without Haliburton this season.
- He cleared the same mark in 38 of his 57 games last season.
Head to Head
Dallas swept the 2025-26 season series 2-0, winning 107-105 at home and 134-130 in Indianapolis. They lead 1-0 this season.
That win came October 23 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, a 121-105 Mavs rout. Dallas won the first quarter 44-27 and scored 15 straight early in the second to lead 61-31, with Kyrie Irving scoring 24 and P.J. Washington adding 20 points and 13 rebounds. Cooper Flagg left before half-time with a shoulder injury, and Indiana won the second half 62-44.
Pacers Form
Indiana are 3-7 and have lost five of their last six, according to ESPN. They've been better away from Indianapolis, going 3-2 on the road.
Saturday's 114-102 loss to Denver in Mexico City followed a familiar script. They trailed 64-41 at half-time, then scored 37 in the third quarter and got within 102-95 with seven minutes left before Denver pulled away.
Haliburton (hamstring) has no timetable to return and T.J. McConnell (hamstring) is questionable, per ESPN's injury report, which keeps the ball in Nembhard's hands.
Mavericks Form
Dallas are 6-4 and 4-2 at home after two straight wins. They have lost their only back-to-back game this season.
Sunday's 130-93 win over Brooklyn was wire to wire. Flagg had 25 points and a career-high 12 assists, Irving added 21 and the Mavs shot a season-best 57.1%.
Dereck Lively II (foot) is out, per ESPN's injury report, so Daniel Gafford keeps the bigger minutes at centre.
Verdict
Dallas should win, but Indiana's two main men will put up the numbers win or lose.
Jeremy Darke
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Writer & Expert Betting Analyst
Jeremy is a sports journalist and analyst covering major US leagues including NBA, NHL and NFL, seeking out player props and value.
From playing rugby, ice hockey, tennis and soccer in his home country of Australia to travelling the world covering US sports, he has found a niche in betting expertise.
His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster here at ExpertPicks.com.