Pelicans vs Warriors Prediction and Picks - Back the Pelicans
- Pelicans +9.5 is the main tip against the Warriors.
- New Orleans have kept most losses within six points and play at a fast pace.
- Pelicans covered +9.5 in 57 of 82 games last season.
Pelicans vs Warriors Prediction and Picks
New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors Prediction and Pick - ExpertPicks
Golden State will probably make it eight straight, but New Orleans will score enough to keep this inside 10.
The New Orleans Pelicans have kept nearly every game close this season, which shapes this Pelicans vs Warriors prediction as they face a Golden State Warriors team chasing an eighth straight win at Chase Center, with tip-off set for 10 p.m. ET.
The Pelicans are 4-6, but the losses haven't been blowouts. Four of their six defeats came by six points or fewer. Nine and a half points is a big cushion for a team that plays this fast.
That pace is why I like the team total too. New Orleans play at the fifth-quickest tempo in the league and average 120.5 points. I have them around 115 tonight and Golden State around 122, so the Warriors still win but the Pelicans clear 111.5 comfortably.
The back-to-back is the obvious worry. New Orleans have already played two second nights this season and scored 135 and 132 in them, so I'm not marking them down much for tired legs.
Saddiq Bey is the safest of the three. He's playing 22 to 36 minutes a night, and against a Warriors defence that ranks 14th, 13 points is a modest ask for someone averaging 16.1.
Key Stats and Trends
- New Orleans covered +9.5 in 57 of their 82 games last season.
- Golden State are giving the ball away 17 times a game.
- The Pelicans have scored 112 or more in 8 of their 10 games.
- Bey has scored 13 or more in each of his last five games.
Head to Head
Golden State won the 2025-26 season series 2-1, with New Orleans taking the last game. Tonight is the first meeting of the new season.
That last meeting was February 24 at Smoothie King Center, and the Pelicans won 113-109. They won the first quarter 31-19 and led 77-72 after three, and Bey's reverse and-one with under two minutes left made it 107-101. Zion Williamson led New Orleans with 26 points.
Pelicans Form
New Orleans lost their first four games, won the next four, and have now lost two straight. Sunday's 139-123 loss to the Clippers turned when Los Angeles opened the fourth quarter on a 15-6 run, according to ESPN.
Trey Murphy III scored 26 and Williamson and Jeremiah Fears had 25 each, so the offence still showed up even in defeat. Yves Missi (knee) remains out, per ESPN's injury report, which keeps Derik Queen in a bigger role.
Warriors Form
Golden State are 7-3 and 5-1 at home after seven straight wins. Saturday's 126-119 overtime win over Orlando was harder than it should have been, as they blew a 16-point half-time lead before Stephen Curry scored 41.
The Magic grabbed 24 offensive rebounds and outscored them 33-2 on second-chance points, according to NBC Sports Bay Area, a leak New Orleans can attack.
Will Richard (thumb) is out and Gui Santos (knee) is probable, per ESPN's injury report, which leaves the bench a little thinner.
Verdict
Golden State should win, but New Orleans have the pace and the scoring to stay within the number.
Jeremy Darke
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Writer & Expert Betting Analyst
Jeremy is a sports journalist and analyst covering major US leagues including NBA, NHL and NFL, seeking out player props and value.
From playing rugby, ice hockey, tennis and soccer in his home country of Australia to travelling the world covering US sports, he has found a niche in betting expertise.
His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster here at ExpertPicks.com.