Capitals vs Senators Prediction and Picks - Goals Expected

This Capitals vs Senators prediction starts with the total, as two teams with shaky goaltending meet at Canadian Tire Centre, and puck drop is set for 7 p.m. ET.

The over 5.5 at -156 is my first bet. Ottawa's last 10 have cleared it seven times, and neither expected starter has a save percentage above .890, with Logan Thompson at .888 and Samuel Ersson at .890.

Washington bring the bigger share of the goals. They score 3.53 a game and allow 3.40, and Ottawa's 3.22 goals for and 3.00 against add enough on the other side to get this past six.

Ryan Leonard has two or more shots on goal in all 15 games he's played. He only averages about 14 and a half minutes, which is the one worry, but he's put 40 shots on net in that time and has never once fallen short of this line.

Shane Pinto is in form for Ottawa. He has a point in 12 of 18 games and four of his last five, with a goal in each of those four.

I'm not backing a side. Washington pass the hit-rate test at +112, but they're only 2-2 on the road and Ottawa are 6-2 at home, so the total is the cleaner angle.

Pinto has seven goals and seven assists this season.

Leonard has five goals and 11 points from his 40 shots.

Washington's penalty kill sits at 76.5%.

Ottawa's penalty kill sits at 74.6%.

Ottawa won the 2025-26 series 2-1, taking a 7-1 win in Washington and a 4-3 win at Canadian Tire Centre. Tonight is the first of three meetings this season.

The last game was March 18, 2026, a 4-1 Washington win at Capital One Arena. Alex Ovechkin and Tom Wilson scored in the second period, and after Tim Stützle cut the lead late, two empty-net goals closed it out.

Washington are 6-4 in their last 10, and their games have stayed wide open. Alex Tuch leads them with 11 goals, while Thompson's .888 save percentage has left the door open most nights.

Last Tuesday they fell behind Dallas 4-0, with Jason Robertson scoring three times in 5.20 of the second period, and their comeback fell one short in a 6-5 loss. They bounced back Saturday, beating Florida 4-3 on Pierre-Luc Dubois' goal early in the third.

Rasmus Sandin was placed on IR with a knee injury on Monday, according to CBS Sports, and he's expected to be out until at least November 25. Thompson is expected to start after playing on Saturday.

Ottawa are 5-4-1 in their last 10, but they've won their last two. Ersson has won his last three starts and allowed four goals across them, which has covered for a power play running at 13.2%.

Last Wednesday in Buffalo, Pinto tied it midway through the third and Michael Amadio won it 2-1 with 3.09 left. Saturday's 4-2 win over Utah was tied 2-2 before Nick Cousins scored with 2.18 to go and Pinto added an empty-netter.

Andre Burakovsky remains on IR with a lower-body injury, CBS Sports reports in its latest update, and isn't expected back until at least November 27. Ersson is expected to start after his last three wins.