Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames Picks - The Leafs' Depth Ends Calgary's Run
- Toronto's four lines and top penalty kill challenge Calgary's reliance on goaltending and the power play.
- Auston Matthews and William Nylander are set to lead the Leafs' offense in Calgary.
- Calgary is missing key players and has a negative goal differential despite recent wins.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames Picks
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames Picks - The Leafs' Depth Ends Calgary's Run
Toronto's four-game win streak runs through Calgary, as the Leafs' depth outlasts a Flames team riding its goalie.
The Toronto Maple Leafs visit the Calgary Flames at 8.30 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Saddledome. My Maple Leafs vs Flames prediction backs Toronto, who have scored 18 goals in their last three games.
Calgary's three-game win streak is real, but it leans on Devin Cooley stopping 100 of 104 shots and a power play that has gone 6-for-12 over the last four. Toronto lead the NHL with a 95.2% penalty kill, which takes away the Flames' main route to goals. Calgary are also being outshot 30.5 to 28.7 a night, and Toronto's four lines will test whether Cooley can keep it up.
Auston Matthews has scored in eight of his 13 games, three of them on the power play. With John Tavares out, more of Toronto's offence runs through his line, and he's my pick for a goal.
William Nylander has points in seven of his last 10 and scored twice in Edmonton on Saturday. He also has 10 assists, so he doesn't need to score to get there.
Key Stats and Trends
- Toronto have won eight straight meetings with Calgary.
- Calgary average just 2.3 goals per game.
- Toronto's power play converts 30.2% of its chances.
- Matthews is averaging three shots on goal per game.
Maple Leafs Form
Depth is the story in Toronto. Thirteen different players got on the scoresheet in Saturday's win, and all three fourth-liners have scored in the last two games.
Saturday's 7-2 win in Edmonton was 3-0 inside 27 minutes, with Matthews and Troy Stecher scoring 54 seconds apart in the second, before four third-period goals ran it up. Thursday's 5-4 win over the Rangers was settled by Stecher with 28 seconds left.
John Tavares is out until late November, per CBS Sports, so Nick Paul keeps centring the second line. Chris Tanev, Nick Blankenburg and Marshall Rifai are all out, which thins the blue line. Anthony Stolarz (.907) made 30 saves on Saturday, so Sergei Bobrovsky (.895) could get this start.
Flames Form
Calgary are 4-6-0 and still carry a minus-16 goal differential, even after three straight wins.
Saturday's 4-1 win over Detroit was decided by special teams, with Zayne Parekh and Matvei Gridin both scoring on the power play. Against Minnesota on Thursday, Cooley made 38 saves as two first-period power-play goals stood up in a 2-1 win.
Mikael Backlund has missed the last two games with an upper-body injury and Jonathan Huberdeau remains out with a hip injury, according to CBS Sports, which leaves Calgary short on experience down the middle. Cooley has started three straight and is the likely pick, with Dustin Wolf (.834) the alternative.
Verdict
Toronto's depth and penalty kill should end Calgary's run, with Matthews and Nylander doing the damage.
Jeremy Darke
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Writer & Expert Betting Analyst
Jeremy is a sports journalist and analyst covering major US leagues including NBA, NHL and NFL, seeking out player props and value.
From playing rugby, ice hockey, tennis and soccer in his home country of Australia to travelling the world covering US sports, he has found a niche in betting expertise.
His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster here at ExpertPicks.com.