Detroit Red Wings vs Edmonton Oilers Picks - McDavid and Draisaitl Push This One Over
- Edmonton's high-powered offense, led by McDavid and Draisaitl, faces a struggling Red Wings penalty kill.
- Both teams have goaltending issues, with expected starters posting sub-.870 save percentages.
- Recent trends and player form suggest the game is likely to go over the posted goal total.
Detroit Red Wings vs Edmonton Oilers Picks
Detroit Red Wings vs Edmonton Oilers Picks - McDavid and Draisaitl Push This One Over
Edmonton's top line and two shaky goalies push this one over the total, with McDavid and Draisaitl doing most of the scoring.
The Detroit Red Wings visit the Edmonton Oilers at 9.30 p.m. ET at Rogers Place. My Red Wings vs Oilers prediction is the over, with Edmonton scoring 4.45 goals a game and allowing 3.55.
I have Edmonton around four and Detroit around three. The Oilers' 35.1% power play meets a Detroit kill working at 65.8%, and Edmonton's own 70% penalty kill gives the Red Wings a way back. With Devon Levi hurt, Tristan Jarry (.861) is the likely Oilers starter, while John Gibson is at .867 for Detroit. If Daniil Tarasov is cleared and starts instead, his .940 tightens Detroit's end, but Edmonton's power play still carries this over.
Leon Draisaitl has nine goals during a six-game goal streak, and half of his 12 this season have come on the power play. Against that Detroit kill, he's the most direct way to back the Oilers' man advantage.
Connor McDavid has a point in all 11 games and nine multipoint nights. At 1.69 the two-point line is close to the limit, but nine in 11 clears it, and I wouldn't take it below 1.60.
Key Stats and Trends
- Edmonton's games have gone over 6.5 goals in seven of 11.
- Detroit's games have gone over 6.5 goals in six of 11.
- McDavid leads the NHL with 33 points, including 25 assists.
- Draisaitl has 43 shots on goal in 11 games.
Red Wings Form
Detroit had points in six straight before Saturday, but a 3-0-3 record in that run shows how many close games they've been living in.
Saturday's 4-1 loss in Calgary turned on special teams, with the Flames scoring on both their power plays and Detroit going 0-for-2. Thursday's 5-2 win in Vancouver was decided early, as Lucas Raymond scored twice and Detroit led 3-1 inside nine minutes.
Marco Kasper and Mason Appleton are both out, per CBS Sports, which thins Detroit's centre depth. Simon Edvinsson remains away in a contract dispute, leaving a hole on the blue line. Tarasov is day-to-day, so Gibson is the likely starter again.
Oilers Form
Edmonton are 8-2-1 and have the top three scorers in the NHL, but they've given up 21 goals in their last five games.
Saturday's 7-2 home loss to Toronto was 3-0 before Draisaitl scored late in the second, and the Leafs added four more in the third. Thursday's 6-5 shootout win over Carolina needed McDavid to tie it with 88 seconds left, after Edmonton had trailed 4-2 in the second.
Levi is on injured reserve and Matt Tomkins has been recalled to back up Jarry, according to NHL.com, so Edmonton have no real alternative in goal. Mattias Ekholm is out with a concussion, keeping Shakir Mukhamadullin on the top pair with Evan Bouchard.
Verdict
Edmonton's power play and two leaky creases point to goals, with McDavid and Draisaitl at the centre of it.
Jeremy Darke
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Writer & Expert Betting Analyst
Jeremy is a sports journalist and analyst covering major US leagues including NBA, NHL and NFL, seeking out player props and value.
From playing rugby, ice hockey, tennis and soccer in his home country of Australia to travelling the world covering US sports, he has found a niche in betting expertise.
His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster here at ExpertPicks.com.