Home / NHL / Penguins vs Avalanche Predictions & Picks - MacKinnon Leads a Colorado Rout
Penguins vs Avalanche Predictions & Picks - MacKinnon Leads a Colorado Rout
- Expert picks Colorado Avalanche to cover the -1.5 puck line against Pittsburgh, citing their powerful offense.
- Nathan MacKinnon is predicted to score over 1.5 points, based on his recent stats.
- Pittsburgh’s goaltending and defensive struggles are highlighted as major concerns.
By Ryan Tucker • Sports Editor & Betting Analyst
Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Fact Checked by: Jeremy Darke•Updated:
Penguins vs Avalanche Expert Predictions & Picks
I'm taking the Colorado Avalanche -1.5 at home against Pittsburgh on Friday, Oct. 16, at 9 p.m. ET. I'm adding Nathan MacKinnon over 1.5 points.
Colorado doesn't do close wins. Three of its four wins have come by 4 goals or more: 8-4, 6-1 and 7-3. With the moneyline being extremely short, the puck line is where the value is.
Pittsburgh is in a rut and until they can prove otherwise, I'm fading them.
Key Stats
- Colorado has scored first in 6 of 7 games
- Pittsburgh has allowed 17 goals in its last 5 games
- The Avalanche are scoring 4.43 goals per game, tied for the most in the NHL
- 2+ points in 5 of 7 games for MacKinnon, who has 12 points and 29 shots
Head to Head
Last season's two meetings were both blowouts. Pittsburgh won 7-2 in Denver in March, and Colorado answered with a 6-2 win in Pittsburgh eight days later. Neither game was close. Friday is the first of two meetings this season.
Pittsburgh Penguins Form
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 in its last 5 and has conceded first in 4 of 7 games. Tuesday's 5-3 loss in Chicago summed it up. Sidney Crosby scored twice, and it still wasn't enough.
The goaltending is the problem. Arturs Silovs is expected to start at .885, and Sergei Murashov gave up 4 on 19 shots on Tuesday. Two defensemen, Ryan Graves and Trevor van Riemsdyk, are on injured reserve. The penalty kill is strong at 89.5%, so Colorado has to win this at 5-on-5. It outshoots opponents 30.6 to 25.1 a night, so I like its chances.
Colorado Avalanche Form
Colorado had Thursday off after a home-and-home with Dallas. It went 1-0-1 in those two games, with the second a 3-2 shootout loss. The attack is still tied for the best in the league.
MacKinnon was held without a point Wednesday. The last time that happened, against Winnipeg on Oct. 7, he answered with 3 points the next night. Scott Wedgewood is the projected starter but hasn't been confirmed. Nicolas Roy and Zachary L'Heureux are day-to-day.
Verdict
A team that wins big against a team that can't stop the bleeding. Give me the Avs -1.5 at plus money, and MacKinnon for 2+ points. If he gets blanked twice in a row, I'm going back to watching cricket.
Ryan Tucker
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Ryan is a sports content writer and editor, producing insights and analysis for major sports including NFL, NHL, NBA and more.
Born in Australia, multiple trips to North America deepened his love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for all major sporting events across basketball, ice hockey, baseball, football and Australian sports that are still close to his heart.