Wild vs Flyers Predictions & Picks - Minnesota Pulls Away in Philadelphia
- Minnesota Wild tipped to cover -1.5 puck line at Philadelphia.
- Kaprizov backed to score, with 15 goals in 16 games.
- Wild have won by 2+ in 8 of 10 wins; Flyers last in goals per game.
Wild vs Flyers Expert Predictions & Picks
The top picks in this matchup are Kirill Kaprizov to score a goal and Minnesota Wild to cover the -1.5 Puck Line in Philadelphia on Tuesday, Nov. 3, at 7 p.m. ET.
Minnesota is 4-0-1 in its last 5, with 20 goals scored and 9 allowed. Philadelphia scores 2.19 goals a game, last in the league, and gets outshot 29.8 to 23.3.
Before I bet any puck line, I check it against our NHL puck line betting stats. Minnesota passes easily with 8 of its 10 wins having come by 2+ goals, against 57% of winners league-wide last season. So at 2.48, I'll take that price against this hit rate and opposition, any day of the week.
Kaprizov has 15 goals in 16 games and has scored in 11 of them, including 4 of his last 5. He plays almost 22 minutes a night with close to 5 minutes on the power play. At 2.05, the price implies about 49% so there is value in the number betting that his streak continues.
Tonight's Shots on Goal Parlay
Key Stats
- Minnesota has won by 2+ goals in 8 of its 10 wins
- Philadelphia has allowed the first goal in 10 of 16 games
- Kaprizov has scored in 11 of 16 games this season
- 2.25 goals allowed per game has Minnesota tied for second in the NHL
Head to Head
The teams haven't met yet this season but last season, Philadelphia beat Minnesota twice, both times by one goal past regulation. The Flyers won 2-1 in overtime at home in October 2025, then 3-2 in a shootout in Minnesota in March. Both games stayed under 5.5, and Philly covered +1.5 both times.
Minnesota Wild Form
Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, both Folignos and Filip Gustavsson are on injured reserve, and Minnesota has barely noticed. Jesper Wallstedt (.920) is the projected starter, not confirmed. He has allowed 1 goal in 3 of his last 4 starts.
Quinn Hughes has a 5-game point streak and goals in 2 straight, and Matt Boldy has points in 5 straight. The Wild outshoot opponents 30.8 to 25.2 a game.
Philadelphia Flyers Form
The power play is the problem. Philadelphia converts 15.7%, 27th in the league, and is 3-3-3 at home. Dan Vladar (.885) is projected by PuckPedia, but another projection has it as a toss-up with Joseph Woll (.899). Neither is confirmed.
Matvei Michkov has goals in 2 straight and 10 of the team's 35 this season. Rasmus Ristolainen and Nikita Grebenkin are on injured reserve.
Verdict
Minnesota is better at both ends and has made a habit of winning by 2 or more. Give me the Wild on the puck line and Kaprizov to find the net. He burned me against the Islanders last week, and I'm going straight back to him.
Ryan Tucker
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Ryan is a sports content writer and editor, producing insights and analysis for major sports including NFL, NHL, NBA and more.
Born in Australia, multiple trips to North America deepened his love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for all major sporting events across basketball, ice hockey, baseball, football and Australian sports that are still close to his heart.