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F1 United States Grand Prix Predictions 2026 - Verstappen Goes for Three
- Max Verstappen is predicted to win his third consecutive US Grand Prix, tying Hamilton’s record at COTA.
- Kimi Antonelli is tipped for a podium finish, potentially securing his championship.
- Charles Leclerc is expected to finish in the top three, building on Ferrari’s form at COTA.
F1 United States Grand Prix Predictions 2026 (Photo by Clive Mason/Getty Images)
F1 United States Grand Prix Predictions 2026 - Verstappen Goes for Three
Max Verstappen makes it three Grand Prix wins in a row in Austin, at a track where he has won four of the last five races.
He won in Malaysia, then led every lap in Singapore, and Red Bull have the fastest car right now. That's why I'm backing Verstappen to win the Formula 1 United States Grand Prix. I'm also taking Kimi Antonelli for a podium as he chases the title, and Charles Leclerc to join him in the top three.
Lights out is Sunday, October 25 at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT, live on TSN and RDS. My US Grand Prix stats breakdown has the full Track Scorecard and all 10 numbers that matter at COTA, but these are the four that shaped my picks:
- Pole has won only 6 of 13 races at COTA, but 11 of 13 winners started on the front row.
- Verstappen has won 4 of the last 5 US Grands Prix, and one more would tie Hamilton's record of five.
- A full Safety Car came out in only 2 of the last 6 races here.
- Leclerc won here in 2024 and finished third last year.
Find all the key stats at our F1 United States Grand Prix Stats 2026 article.
Max Verstappen to Win the US Grand Prix
Verstappen won the Singapore Grand Prix from pole, 7.3 seconds clear of Leclerc, after also winning the Sprint. Coming after his win in Malaysia, that's two dominant weekends in a row. Red Bull have the best car on the grid at the moment.
COTA suits that. There are few Safety Cars, so a quicker car usually isn't caught out by bad timing, and the long climb to Turn 1 means a strong start can put him in front even if he doesn't take pole. He won from pole here last year, and he won from sixth in 2023.
With no Sprint this year, there are three practice sessions to get the car set up. That usually helps the team with the most speed, not the team catching up.
Pick: Max Verstappen to win
Kimi Antonelli Podium Finish
Antonelli leads the championship with 340 points, 102 clear of George Russell, and he finished third in Singapore. According to the official F1 title permutation, he can clinch the title on Sunday if he wins, with Russell ninth or lower and Hamilton fifth or lower.
He doesn't need to win, though. Playing it safe for a podium still puts him a big step closer to the title, and Mercedes have the best car of anyone outside Red Bull. Mercedes are also the most successful team at COTA, with five wins.
Russell is the bigger worry for Mercedes. After his engine penalty in Singapore, ESPN reported that Russell could face a second one in Austin if he takes the upgraded power unit. If he does, that's one fewer car fighting Antonelli for the podium.
Pick: Kimi Antonelli top 3 finish
Charles Leclerc Podium Finish
Leclerc finished second in Singapore and was the only driver who stayed close to Verstappen. That's the best his Ferrari has looked in a while, at the right time.
COTA has been good to him. He won here from fourth in 2024, leading a Ferrari one-two, and was third last year behind Verstappen and Lando Norris. He also still holds the lap record of 1:36.169, set back in 2019.
Ferrari's trouble this season has been strategy, not speed, and Hamilton's race in Singapore is proof. With fewer Safety Cars to complicate pit stops, Leclerc has a simpler path to the podium.
Pick: Charles Leclerc top 3 finish
Verdict
Max Verstappen to win the US Grand Prix, with Kimi Antonelli and Charles Leclerc both finishing in the top three.
Jeremy Darke
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Writer & Expert Betting Analyst
Jeremy is a sports journalist and analyst covering major US leagues including NBA, NHL and NFL, seeking out player props and value.
From playing rugby, ice hockey, tennis and soccer in his home country of Australia to travelling the world covering US sports, he has found a niche in betting expertise.
His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster here at ExpertPicks.com.