F1 United States Grand Prix Stats 2026 - 10 Numbers That Decide the Race
Kimi Antonelli can be crowned world champion in Austin on Sunday, but only if he wins and gets help from both George Russell and Lewis Hamilton. Max Verstappen, chasing a third straight Grand Prix win, has won four of the last five races here.
The Circuit of the Americas is 56 laps of a 5.513 km track with 20 corners and a steep climb to Turn 1, and it's a real racing track compared with Singapore. There's no Sprint this year, so it's a traditional weekend with three practice sessions. These are the numbers I'm watching before the 2026 Formula 1 United States Grand Prix and used to give out 2026 U.S F1 Grand Prix Predictions.
US Grand Prix start time in Canada: Sunday, October 25 at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT. Qualifying is Saturday at 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT. Every session is live on TSN in English and RDS in French, with streaming on TSN+.
Expertpicks Track Scorecard - Circuit of the Americas
| Measure | Score |
|---|---|
| Qualifying Matters | 5/10 |
| Safety Car Chance | 3/10 |
| Overtaking Difficulty | 4/10 |
| Strategy Swing | 6/10 |
| Chaos Rating | 5/10 |
COTA is the opposite of Marina Bay. Pole matters less, there are fewer Safety Cars, and passing is very much possible, which is why this race is usually won on pace rather than luck.
10 Numbers That Decide the US Grand Prix
6 of 13 - How Often Pole Wins at COTA
Only six of the 13 United States Grands Prix held in Austin have been won from pole. That's well under half, compared with 11 of 16 in Singapore. Starting first here is a big help, but it doesn't decide the race.
11 of 13 - Wins From the Front Row
The front row still matters. Eleven of the 13 COTA winners started first or second, with five wins from second on the grid. The long uphill run to Turn 1 gives the driver in second a real chance to take the lead into the first corner.
6th - The Lowest Winning Grid Slot
Verstappen's win from sixth in 2023 is the furthest back anyone has won from at COTA. Charles Leclerc won from fourth in 2024, so the front row isn't everything here, but nobody has won from outside the top six.
2 of 6 - Races With a Safety Car
A full Safety Car came out in only two of the last six races in Austin, in 2022 and 2024. With wide run-off areas instead of walls, this track rarely neutralises the race, which helps whoever has the fastest car.
4 of 5 - Verstappen's Last Five US Grands Prix
Verstappen won here in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2025, all except Leclerc's 2024 win. One more win would tie Hamilton's record of five COTA victories.
2 in a Row - Verstappen's Current Win Streak
Verstappen arrives off back-to-back Grand Prix wins in Malaysia and Singapore, plus the Singapore Sprint. He led every lap at Marina Bay and finished 7.3 seconds clear of Leclerc.
102 Points - Antonelli's Title Lead
Antonelli leads Russell 340 to 238 with six rounds and 150 points left. A third place in Singapore, plus Russell only reaching ninth from the back of the grid, put the title within reach.
23 Points - What Antonelli Must Outscore Russell By
According to the official F1 title permutations for Austin, Antonelli has to outscore Russell by 23 points and Hamilton by 14 this weekend. In practice, that means Antonelli wins, with Russell ninth or lower and Hamilton fifth or lower.
0 - Sprints This Weekend
Austin ran Sprint weekends for the last three seasons, but not in 2026. That means three practice sessions to set the cars up, so Friday's long runs will give a better idea of race pace than usual.
20% - Chance of Rain on Sunday
Early forecasts point to a warm, mostly dry weekend, with about a 20% chance of rain during the race. If it stays dry, expect tyre management in the Texas heat to matter more than the weather.
What the Numbers Point To
COTA rewards the fastest car more than the polesitter. There's room to pass, a Safety Car is unlikely, and it's usually been won from the front row.
Right now the fastest car looks like Verstappen's Red Bull. He has two straight wins, four in his last five visits, and he looked in total control in Singapore. I break down every market in my full US Grand Prix picks before lights out on Sunday.