Grizzlies vs Pelicans Prediction and Picks - Back the Props

Memphis are unbeaten on the road and New Orleans have lost four straight, which frames this Grizzlies vs Pelicans prediction as the Memphis Grizzlies chase revenge against the New Orleans Pelicans, with tip-off at 8 p.m. ET.

I'm leaving the spread alone. Both sides have covered 3.5 just once in their last five, so I'm backing the players instead.

Coward 7+ rebounds at 1.90 leads the card. He's cleared it in 9 of 10 games, yet the price treats it close to a coin flip. Zach Edey and Quinten Post are both out, per ESPN's injury report, so Memphis are without both centres, and in the one game Edey missed, Coward grabbed 11.

Zion Williamson 20+ points at 1.62 is next. He's hit it in 8 of 11, and with Trey Murphy III doubtful, he's scored 23 and 29 in the two games he's played without him.

Jerami Grant 2+ made threes at 2.25 is the value play. He's done it in each of his last five games and in 40 of 57 last season.

The 2025-26 season series finished 2-2. New Orleans lead this season's series 1-0.

That win came on November 2 in Memphis, 135-134 in overtime. The Pelicans led 124-115 with under three minutes left before Ty Jerome scored Memphis' last nine points of regulation. In the ESPN recap, Zion scored New Orleans' first nine points of overtime, and Jeremiah Fears won it from the line with 7.3 seconds left.

Memphis are 7-4 with a +5.8 net rating, 10th in the league. The offence ranks eighth at 114.5 points per 100 possessions, and the defence ranks ninth at 108.6.

The road split is the story. They're 5-0 away from home, allowing just 106.0 points a game and winning by 11.2 on average. At home they're 2-4 and allowing 116.8.

The shooting drives it. Memphis take 39.5 threes a game and make 38.9%, while opponents make only 12.5 a game against them. Turnovers are the leak at 16.4 a game.

Jerome is averaging 26.2 points in 30.7 minutes and has scored 21 or more in each of his last five. They lost 123-118 to Denver on Wednesday after trailing by 18 in the second quarter, according to ESPN, and still closed within two late.

New Orleans are 4-8 with a -6.9 net rating, 25th in the league. The offence is middling at 15th, but the defence ranks 28th at 117.4 points per 100 possessions.

It's getting worse, not better. They've allowed 124.8 points a game over their last 10, and 134.4 a game on the road. At home that drops to 117.0.

They play fast, fourth in pace at 103.2 possessions a game, and their games average 241.2 total points. They also make just 33.1% of their threes and turn it over 16.5 times a game.

Jeremiah Fears is stepping up, at 18.6 points over his last five against 15.2 on the season. The Nets opened the third quarter on an 8-0 run in Wednesday's 145-111 rout, per ESPN, and Murphy and Bennedict Mathurin are doubtful again.