Trail Blazers vs Kings Predictions & Picks - Portland's Offense Should Overwhelm Sacramento
- Portland Trail Blazers tipped to cover -10.5 at Sacramento.
- Deni Avdija backed for over 23.5 points against a weak Kings defence.
- Portland has won five straight against Sacramento; Kings allow most points to forwards.
By Ryan Tucker • Sports Editor & Betting Analyst
Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Fact Checked by: Leigh Copson•Updated:
Trail Blazers vs Kings Expert Predictions & Picks
I'm backing the Portland Trail Blazers offence to cover the -10.5 on the road on Friday, Nov. 13, at 10:00 p.m. ET with Deni Avdija going over 23.5 points.
Portland is 8-3 and 5-1 on the road and their offense is ranked 3rd in the league. It just beat Oklahoma City convincingly twice in two nights, 123-103 and 118-108.
Sacramento is 1-10, 0-6 at home and has lost four straight. The Kings rank 27th in defensive rating and give up 121 points a game.
Avdija is the prop with Sacramento allowing 59.3 points a game to forwards, the most in the league. He's scored 24 or more in all five meetings over the last two seasons, including 26 in Sacramento last month.
Key Stats
- Portland ranks third in offensive rating and eighth in net rating (+7.1)
- Sacramento ranks 28th in net rating (-12.3) and is 0-6 at home
- Portland has won five straight against Sacramento
- Avdija has scored 24, 25, 26, 30 and 35 against the Kings
Head to Head
Portland won all four meetings last season, by 1, 5, 7 and 12, and won 128-120 at Golden 1 Center on Oct. 23.
Portland Trail Blazers Form
Avdija leads the way at 23 points, 6.1 rebounds and 6.5 assists a game. Damian Lillard adds 19.8 points, Jrue Holiday 13.4 and Toumani Camara 13.1. Clingan is averaging a double-double with 10.8 points and 10.5 rebounds.
The road wins came by 8, 7, 22, 8 and 13. Shaedon Sharpe, Ja Morant (hamstring) and Vit Krejci are out, and DJ Steward is a game-time call.
The only road loss was 124-118 at the Lakers on Nov. 6. Portland also owns the glass, averaging 56.5 rebounds a game to Sacramento's 49.3, which means extra possessions against a defense that can't get stops.
Sacramento Kings Form
Darius Acuff Jr. has been a bright spot, averaging 26.2 points and 7.3 assists in 37.3 minutes. Zach LaVine adds 22.3 points and Domantas Sabonis 13.8 points and 13.3 rebounds.
The defense is the problem. The Kings rank 27th in defensive rating, and three of their six home losses came by double digits: 11 to Memphis, 13 to the Lakers and 15 to San Antonio. Ben Simmons and Maxime Raynaud are out.
Sabonis was held scoreless in 24 minutes against Orlando on Tuesday, and the Kings turn it over 17.5 times a game. They also play at the fourth-fastest pace, so Portland should get plenty of chances to run.
Verdict
Portland has the better offense, the better record and a five-game winning run in this matchup. Sacramento's defense hasn't stopped anyone at home. I'm laying the 10.5 and taking Avdija to feast on the Kings' forwards.
Ryan Tucker
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Ryan is a sports content writer and editor, producing insights and analysis for major sports including NFL, NHL, NBA and more.
Born in Australia, multiple trips to North America deepened his love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for all major sporting events across basketball, ice hockey, baseball, football and Australian sports that are still close to his heart.