Spurs vs Jazz Prediction & Picks - Wembanyama Owns the Paint

Size is the edge in this Spurs vs Jazz prediction, and the San Antonio Spurs have plenty of it when they take on a short-handed Utah Jazz front line at Delta Center, with tip-off at 9 p.m. ET.

The back-to-back is the one real objection to a 12.5-point line, and it doesn't worry me. San Antonio went 12-3 on the second night last season, and they led Sacramento 80-54 at half last night, so Victor Wembanyama got through it in under 27 minutes.

Even before the injuries, Utah rank 25th in defensive rating, and the net-rating gap is 14.5 points per 100 possessions.

Wembanyama has a double-double in three of his four games. The one miss was a seven-rebound night at Dallas, and Utah's depleted bigs should leave the boards open. At 1.40 this is pushing the limit, but his role clears it, and I wouldn't take it below 1.35.

San Antonio took the 2025-26 season series 2-1, with Utah winning 127-114 in San Antonio in December. Tonight is the first meeting of the new season.

The last meeting was January 22 in Salt Lake City, a 126-109 Spurs win. Utah cut a 12-point half-time lead to five with a 39-point third quarter, but San Antonio won the fourth 29-17, led by De'Aaron Fox's 31 points on 10-of-13 shooting and Wembanyama's 26 points, 14 rebounds and five blocks.

San Antonio have won two straight by a combined 43 points after opening 0-2 at home.

Last night's 130-103 rout of Sacramento was over after a 39-point first quarter. Wembanyama scored 29 on 14 of 21 with five blocks, and Julian Champagnie hit eight threes off the bench. Dylan Harper added 22 in Saturday's 122-106 win in Dallas.

Tobias Harris and Jayden Quaintance remain out, according to ESPN's injury report, leaving the same starting five that has opened all four games.

Utah are 1-3 and allowing 121 points a game, with Keyonte George (22.8 points, 7.8 assists) carrying the offence.

Monday's 110-105 loss to Memphis turned on a 30-21 first quarter, and the Jazz lost two starters to injury along the way. Sunday they led the Lakers 47-29 after one and still lost 132-123 after giving up 45 in the second.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a knee injury, per the Jazz listing on ESPN, taking 16.2 points and Utah's best rim protector off the floor. Lauri Markkanen is questionable with a sprained wrist, which could cost Utah their second scorer. Jaxson Hayes is questionable with a sore shoulder, and Jusuf Nurkic remains out, leaving Utah thin at centre behind Mo Bamba.