Thunder vs Mavericks Predictions & Picks - Thunder Defense Keeps It Low
- Under 229.5 total points is tipped for Thunder vs Mavericks.
- Both teams have gone under this line in three of four games this season.
- Oklahoma City are missing key scorers, reducing their offensive output.
By Ryan Tucker • Sports Editor & Betting Analyst
Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Fact Checked by: Leigh Copson•Updated:
Thunder vs Mavericks Expert Predictions & Picks
I'm taking the Under 229.5 when Oklahoma City visits Dallas on Wednesday, Oct. 28, at 9:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center. I made a ton of cash on Isaiah Hartenstein boards last year so taking him over 9.5 rebounds tonight.
The Thunder are 4-0 and doing it with defense. They're allowing 100.8 points a game, second in defensive rating, and three of their four games finished at 220 or lower. Dallas has stayed under this total in three of four, too.
Oklahoma City is also short-handed. Williams, Holmgren, Caruso and Wallace are all out, which takes 41.2 points a game off the floor. The two meetings in Dallas last season finished at 195 and 187.
With Holmgren out, the boards go to Hartenstein. He has 12 and 13 rebounds in his last two games as his minutes climbed past 25, and Dallas is without Lively and giving up 13.8 offensive rebounds a game.
Key Stats
- Oklahoma City is allowing 100.8 points a game, second in defensive rating
- Both teams have gone under 229.5 in 3 of their 4 games this season
- Dallas is turning it over 18.5 times a game
- Hartenstein has 12 and 13 rebounds in his last two games, in 27 and 26 minutes
Head to Head
Oklahoma City swept all three meetings last season, 101-94 and 100-87 in Dallas and 132-111 at home. The Mavericks scored 94 and 87 on their own floor, and only the game in Oklahoma City got near this total.
Oklahoma City Thunder Form
The injury list is long. Williams (leg fracture), Holmgren (knee), Caruso (ankle) and Wallace (shoulder) are out. Ajay Mitchell is a game-time call with an ankle injury after scoring 30 on Monday. The Thunder beat Phoenix 125-114 that night without Williams or Holmgren, and Hartenstein grabbed 13 rebounds in 26 minutes.
The defense hasn't missed a beat. Opponents are turning it over 18.8 times a game against the Thunder, and the offense is only 17th in rating, so these games don't turn into track meets. That Phoenix game hit 239, though, and a thinner bench is the main risk to the Under.
Dallas Mavericks Form
Turnovers are killing Dallas. The Mavericks have coughed it up 21, 15, 21 and 17 times, a bad habit against a defense that feeds on them.
Cooper Flagg is carrying the load with 25 points and 6.3 assists, including 29 and 11 assists in Miami on Monday. Kyrie Irving (knee) and Naji Marshall (illness) are game-time calls. Lively is out, and Dallas has been beaten on the offensive glass in three of four games.
Verdict
The Thunder defense travels, and its offense just lost a lot of help. I'll take the Under and ride Hartenstein on the glass, because with Holmgren in street clothes, somebody has to grab the misses.
Ryan Tucker
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Ryan is a sports content writer and editor, producing insights and analysis for major sports including NFL, NHL, NBA and more.
Born in Australia, multiple trips to North America deepened his love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for all major sporting events across basketball, ice hockey, baseball, football and Australian sports that are still close to his heart.