Warriors vs Timberwolves Predictions & Picks - Minnesota Owns the Glass
- Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 is the main tip against Golden State Warriors.
- Timberwolves' rebounding edge and Gobert's form support the selections.
- Golden State is missing key players and ranks low in defensive rating.
By Ryan Tucker • Sports Editor & Betting Analyst
Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Fact Checked by: Leigh Copson•Updated:
Warriors vs Timberwolves Expert Predictions & Picks
I'm taking the Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 at home against Golden State on Wednesday, Oct. 28, at 8:00 p.m. ET at Target Center. With the T-Wolves owning the glass I'm also taking Rudy Gobert over 12.5 rebounds.
This number is short for the gap between these teams. Minnesota is 3-1 with a +16 net rating, second in the league, and won its three games by 25, 22 and 23. The only loss was 127-125 in Cleveland on a back-to-back.
Golden State is 1-3 and ranks 28th in defensive rating. Butler, Porzingis and Moses Moody are out, and Yaxel Lendeborg is a game-time call with a foot injury.
Gobert has 15, 9, 13 and 20 rebounds. Minnesota is pulling down 67.5 boards a game to Golden State's 50, and the Warriors are without their biggest body in Porzingis.
Key Stats
- Minnesota is 3-1 with a +16 net rating, second in the NBA
- Golden State ranks 28th in defensive rating and is allowing 120.8 points a game
- The Timberwolves won 3 of 4 meetings last season, including both games at Chase Center
- Gobert is averaging 14.2 rebounds in 32.4 minutes this season
Head to Head
Minnesota won three of four last season. It won 127-120 and 127-117 at Chase Center, and the teams split back-to-back games at Target Center in January. Golden State won the first 111-85, and Minnesota answered with a 108-83 win the next night. Gobert had 14 and 17 rebounds in two of the four meetings.
Golden State Warriors Form
Butler (knee), Moody (knee) and Porzingis (illness) are out, and Lendeborg (foot) is questionable. He's averaging 21.8 points and 9.2 rebounds and scored 26 and 31 in his last two games. Without him, the frontcourt is Draymond Green plus Al Horford in 18 minutes a night.
The offense ranks 4th in rating, and Stephen Curry is scoring 23.7 a game. The other end is the problem. Golden State has allowed 127, 111, 131 and 114, and it's turning it over 17.5 times a night. If Lendeborg plays and Curry gets hot, 3.5 points can disappear fast.
Minnesota Timberwolves Form
The defense travels. Minnesota is allowing 105 points a game, third in defensive rating, and held Miami, Orlando and Toronto to 106, 93 and 94. It's also grabbing 16.3 offensive rebounds a game.
Anthony Edwards is averaging 33.2 points and dropped 45 and 47 in two of his four games. LaMelo Ball is running the offense with 6.2 assists. Donte DiVincenzo is out (Achilles).
Verdict
Minnesota is the better team on both ends and the much bigger one. I'll lay the 3.5 and ride Gobert to clean up a long night of missed Warriors shots. If Golden State wins the rebounding battle, I'll eat my hat, and I don't even own one.
Ryan Tucker
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Ryan is a sports content writer and editor, producing insights and analysis for major sports including NFL, NHL, NBA and more.
Born in Australia, multiple trips to North America deepened his love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for all major sporting events across basketball, ice hockey, baseball, football and Australian sports that are still close to his heart.