F1 Mexico City GP Predictions 2026 - Antonelli Seals It

He only needs ninth place, but I don't see him cruising. Mercedes had the fastest car in Austin and he won it with ease. That's why I'm backing Antonelli to win the Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix, with Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen joining him on the podium for the second week running.

Lights out is Sunday, November 1 at 3 p.m. ET / noon PT, live on TSN and RDS. Clocks go back that morning, so don't get caught out. Our Mexico City Grand Prix stats breakdown has the full Track Scorecard and all 10 numbers that matter in Mexico City, but these are the four that shaped my picks:

Antonelli took pole in Austin, made the better start, and won by 13 seconds on a one-stop while his closest rivals stopped twice. That was his ninth win of the season, and Mercedes' new package looked like the real deal.

Some will expect him to play it safe with the title so close. But in Mexico City the safest place is the front, away from the lap 1 chaos in the long run to Turn 1. Pole has won the last two races here, and the order barely changes once the race settles down.

He's also said he'd love to clinch the title in style, and I think the car lets him. The Italian would become the youngest driver to win the title and the first champion from Italy since Alberto Ascari in 1953. That's a big night to celebrate with a win.

Leclerc has finished second in each of the last two races, behind Verstappen in Singapore and Antonelli in Austin. He came from fourth on the grid at COTA and passed Verstappen late, so the Ferrari has the race pace as well as the speed over one lap.

Mexico City has been good to Ferrari lately. Carlos Sainz won here from pole in 2024, and Leclerc was second last year. He's also taken pole here twice before, in 2019 and 2023.

The one risk is Ferrari's strategy calls, which cost Hamilton in Singapore. In Austin they got it right, and Leclerc is the driver I trust to bring it home in the top three.

Verstappen has more wins here than anyone, with five. He's finished on the podium at six events in a row, and that includes a messy Austin weekend.

The official F1 report on Red Bull's Austin race details power unit inconsistency, the wrong tyre choices and a slow pit stop, and he still finished third. Verstappen himself said COTA's high-speed corners didn't suit the car. Mexico City has far fewer of them.

That's what I like about this pick. Even on a bad day he's been in the top three, and on a good day he's the one driver who can fight Antonelli for the win.