Singapore Grand Prix Stats: 10 Numbers That Decide the 2026 Race
Pole has won 11 of 16 Singapore Grands Prix, so the race could be decided in qualifying on Saturday night before the lights go out on Sunday.
This year it's also the final Sprint weekend of the season, and last year's winner starts from the back.
Marina Bay is one of the hardest tracks on the calendar to pass on, with walls everywhere and 62 laps in heat that can take three kilos out of a driver. These are the numbers I'm watching and how I have made my predictions for the 2026 Singapore Grand Prix.
Singapore Grand Prix start time in Canada: Sunday, October 11 at 8 a.m. ET / 5 a.m. PT. Qualifying is Saturday at 9 a.m. ET / 6 a.m. PT, and the Sprint is Saturday at 5 a.m. ET / 2 a.m. PT. Every session is live on TSN in English and RDS in French, with streaming on TSN+.
Expertpicks Track Scorecard: Marina Bay
| Measure | Score |
|---|---|
| Qualifying Matters | 8/10 |
| Safety Car Chance | 7/10 |
| Overtaking Difficulty | 8/10 |
| Strategy Swing | 6/10 |
| Chaos Rating | 8/10 |
The Chaos Rating gets an extra point this weekend because showers are in the forecast for every day of track action.
10 Numbers That Decide the Singapore Grand Prix
11 of 16: How Often Pole Wins in Singapore
Eleven of the 16 Singapore Grands Prix have been won from pole. The last three polesitters, Carlos Sainz, Lando Norris and George Russell, all went on to win, so Saturday night's qualifying lap is worth more here than almost anywhere else.
198 Metres: The Run to Turn 1
It's only 198 metres from pole to the first braking point. That's not enough room for the cars behind to get a run on the leader, so a clean launch from P1 usually means leading into Turn 1.
67%: Safety Car Chance
A full Safety Car came out in four of the last six Singapore races, and there's a 33% chance of a Virtual Safety Car on top of that. With walls this close, one small mistake can end a race.
2 in a Row: Races Without a Safety Car
Every Singapore Grand Prix from 2008 to 2023 had at least one Safety Car. Then 2024 and 2025 both ran clean. I'd treat that as a blip rather than a new normal on a street circuit this tight.
22.44 Seconds: Pit-Lane Time Loss
That's what a pit stop costs at Marina Bay, one of the biggest losses of the season. It's why one stop on mediums and hards is the expected plan, and why a well-timed Safety Car can hand someone a cheap stop.
58: Overtakes in 2025
Last year's race had 58 completed passes, but Marina Bay is still one of the toughest tracks to overtake on. Carlos Sainz needed 50 laps on mediums and a late switch to softs just to climb from 18th to 10th last year.
15th: The Lowest Winning Grid Slot
Nobody has won Singapore from further back than Fernando Alonso's 15th in 2008, and that was the race decided by Nelson Piquet Jr.'s deliberate crash. Without help from a Safety Car, a win from the back of the grid is very unlikely.
84 Points: Antonelli's Title Lead
Kimi Antonelli leads Mercedes teammate George Russell by 84 points with seven rounds left. That gap could grow on Sunday, because Russell starts from the back after Mercedes confirmed an
engine penalty for Russell in Singapore following his power unit failure in Malaysia. The penalty only applies to the Grand Prix, so Saturday's Sprint is his chance to cut into the gap.
0: Verstappen's Singapore Wins
Max Verstappen has 72 Grand Prix wins and none of them have come at Marina Bay. He arrives off his first win of 2026 in Malaysia, where Red Bull also took the first non-Mercedes pole of the season.
40%: Chance of Rain on Sunday
The official F1 weather forecast gives a 40% chance of rain for both Saturday and Sunday, with track temperatures around 55°C during the day. A pop-up storm at Marina Bay would throw out most of the numbers above.
What the Numbers Point To
Every number here comes back to qualifying. Pole wins most of the time, passing is hard, and only a Safety Car or a shower really changes the order.
I'm leaning on Verstappen to finally win in Singapore. Red Bull were the quickest car at Sepang, and Mercedes don't seem sure whether their new update helps or hurts.
Every Sprint weekend this season has had a different Sprint winner and Grand Prix winner, so don't read too much into Saturday's Sprint result. I break down every market in my full Singapore Grand Prix picks before lights out on Sunday.