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Stars vs Avalanche NHL Picks & Predictions
- Expert predicts Colorado Avalanche to win at home against the Dallas Stars on Oct. 14.
- Nathan MacKinnon tipped to score over 1.5 points, a mark he’s reached in 5 of 6 games.
- Dallas' strong defense offset by low-scoring offense and backup goaltending expected.
By Ryan Tucker • Sports Editor & Betting Analyst
Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Fact Checked by: Jeremy Darke•Updated:
Stars vs Avalanche
Stars at Avalanche Expert Predictions & Picks
I'm taking the Colorado Avalanche moneyline at home against Dallas on Wednesday, Oct. 14, at 8:30 p.m. ET. I'm adding Nathan MacKinnon over 1.5 points at plus money.
This is the second half of a home-and-home. Colorado won 3-2 in Dallas on Tuesday, and MacKinnon set up both of Colorado's even-strength goals. Now the series moves to Denver, where the Avs have scored 17 goals in 3 games.
Dallas can defend, but it can't score. Thirteen goals in 6 games won't keep pace with MacKinnon.
If you are looking for more value in this matchup, a tie in regulation is paying well given 3 of last season's 4 meetings went to OT.
Key Stats
- 5 of 6 games with 2+ points for MacKinnon, who has 12 points and 25 shots
- 2.17 goals per game for Dallas, with 1 goal or fewer in 3 of 6 games
- 5 of 6 games in which Colorado scored first
- 23.8% power play for Colorado, against 14.3% for Dallas
Head to Head
Colorado won the first meeting this season, 3-2 in Dallas. Last season was tight. Three of the four meetings went to a shootout, and Colorado's only regulation win was 2-0. That's why I'm on the moneyline and not the 60-minute line.
Dallas Stars Form
Dallas is 2-3-1, allowing just 1.83 goals per game with two shutouts from Jake Oettinger. But Oettinger played Tuesday, so the Stars are expected to start their backup, Casey DeSmith.
The offense is the problem. Mikko Rantanen has 6 points but didn't register a shot on Tuesday. Matt Duchene is out for three months after core surgery.
Colorado Avalanche Form
Colorado is 4-2 and scoring 4.83 goals per game, the most of any team on this slate. MacKinnon runs everything. He has 5 goals and 7 assists, averages 4.17 shots and plays more than 4 minutes a night on the power play.
Martin Necas scored twice Tuesday and has 7 points. Cale Makar missed Tuesday's game for the birth of his child, and his status for Wednesday is unclear. Colorado won without him, so I'm not changing the pick either way.
Verdict
Colorado has the better attack, the better power play and the best player on the ice. Give me the Avs at home. And give me MacKinnon for 2+ points. He's done it in 5 of 6 games, and the book is still paying plus money.
Ryan Tucker
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Ryan is a sports content writer and editor, producing insights and analysis for major sports including NFL, NHL, NBA and more.
Born in Australia, multiple trips to North America deepened his love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for all major sporting events across basketball, ice hockey, baseball, football and Australian sports that are still close to his heart.