NHL Shots on Goal Parlay for Tonight Nov. 5
I'm building tonight's parlay around five players from five different games who keep putting pucks on net: Connor Bedard, Alex DeBrincat, Bo Horvat, Tyson Foerster and Noah Dobson, all to go over their shots on goal lines. The five legs pay +1690 combined at DraftKings.
All five have cleared tonight's number in at least two-thirds of their games. Bedard has 3 or more shots in each of his last 5, and DeBrincat has hit 3 or more in 13 of 16.
Horvat comes in rested after four days off, Foerster draws a Rangers team that's lost 4 of 5, and Dobson has 2 or more shots in 8 of his last 10 even without a goal to show for it.
Key Stats
- Bedard averages 4.67 shots a game on the road and has played over 4 minutes on the power play in three of his last five
- DeBrincat has 59 shots in 16 games, and Vegas kill only 73.9% of penalties
- Tampa Bay, Utah and the Rangers all allow at least 24.6 shots a game, and the Rangers give up 26.6
- +1690 is the combined price for five players who clear their line in at least two-thirds of their games
Leg 1: Connor Bedard Over 2.5 Shots (Blackhawks vs Lightning, 7 p.m. ET)
Bedard is the whole Chicago attack right now. He's had 4, 4, 6, 4 and 3 shots over his last five games and averages 4.67 on the road, with more than 20 minutes a night and heavy power-play minutes. Tampa Bay allow 24.6 shots a game, and Chicago run most of their offence through him.
Chicago played in Florida last night, so this is the second half of a back-to-back, and Bedard has only 10 games played this season. At 2.20 the price covers that risk, and his volume hasn't dipped on tired legs yet.
Leg 2: Alex DeBrincat Over 2.5 Shots (Golden Knights vs Red Wings, 7 p.m. ET)
DeBrincat is the most reliable leg here. He's cleared 2.5 in 13 of 16 games, with 4 shots in each of his last two, and he plays 3:48 a night on the power play. Vegas kill only 73.9% of penalties, so Detroit should get chances on the man advantage.
His one dip is at home, where he averages 3.33 shots against 4.14 on the road. That's still comfortably over the line, which is why I'm happy with him at the shortest price in the parlay.
Leg 3: Bo Horvat Over 2.5 Shots (Hurricanes vs Islanders, 7 p.m. ET)
Horvat has 3 or more shots in 10 of 14 games and averages 3.57 at home. He plays 21:01 a night with close to four minutes on the power play, and the Islanders haven't played since Saturday, so he should be fresh.
Carolina are the problem. They allow just 22.3 shots a game, the fewest in the league, and this is the toughest matchup of the five. Horvat's home volume and power-play role are why I'm still backing him at 1.87.
Leg 4: Tyson Foerster Over 1.5 Shots (Flyers vs Rangers, 7 p.m. ET)
Foerster has 2 or more shots in 11 of 16 games and 3 shots in four of his last six. The Rangers allow 26.6 shots a game and have lost 4 of their last 5, so the Flyers should get some looks.
The worry is ice time. He's played only 13:21 and 15:58 in two of his last three games, and Philadelphia take the fewest shots in the league at 23.4 a game. Needing only 2 shots gives him enough margin.
Leg 5: Noah Dobson Over 1.5 Shots (Mammoth vs Canadiens, 7 p.m. ET)
Dobson still hasn't scored, but the shots are there. He has 2 or more in 8 of his last 10 and plays 20:57 a night on the Montreal blue line. Utah allow 24.8 shots a game, and the Canadiens have won 4 of their last 5.
He's had only 1 shot in two of his last five games, and his power-play time is limited to 1:38 a night. His even-strength minutes do the work here, and 1.5 is a low enough line for that.