Capitals vs Penguins Expert Picks
My Capitals vs Penguins prediction is a Washington win on Wednesday, with Alex Ovechkin scoring in the home opener of his final NHL season.
Ovechkin announced on Monday that 2026-27 will be his last NHL season, and the Washington Capitals host the Pittsburgh Penguins at Capital One Arena at 7:30 p.m. ET in his first home game since. The building will be rocking, and I think the Caps feed off it.
I'm backing Washington because their goalies are stopping .935 of the shots they face, while Pittsburgh have given up six third-period goals in their last two games. If the Caps keep this close into the third, I like them to finish it.
I'm also taking Ovechkin to score on his big night. He's getting more power-play time than any other Capital, he's back on his favourite line with Dylan Strome, and Pittsburgh's Arturs Silovs is stopping just .886 of shots so far.
On the other side, I like Sidney Crosby to pick up two or more points. He leads the Penguins with 10 shots on goal, and he's playing on a team scoring five goals a game against a Washington side that keeps taking penalties.
Key Trends & Stats
- The Penguins have scored 15 goals in three games (5.00 per game), with their power play going 4 for 10.
- Pittsburgh have given up six third-period goals across their last two games.
- Washington have been shorthanded nine times in two games, killing off eight of them.
- Crosby has 10 shots on goal in three games and is playing 19:00 a night.
Capitals Form
Washington split their two-game road trip, scoring three in the first period of a 5-2 win at Carolina before managing just 21 shots in a 3-1 loss at Tampa Bay. Their goalies have carried them, with Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren combining for a .935 save percentage despite the Caps being outshot 63-48.
Jakob Chychrun has been the standout with three points in two games, and he logged 27:11 against the Lightning. Alex Tuch has two goals, while Ovechkin has one assist and one shot on a reunited line with Dylan Strome and Anthony Beauvillier.
Defenceman Matt Roy is day-to-day with a lower-body injury, and Dylan McIlrath will slot in if he can't go.
Penguins Form
Pittsburgh are 2-1, with a 7-0 win in Philadelphia, a 6-5 overtime win over Montreal and a 3-2 loss to Winnipeg. The problem is late in games: they blew a 5-2 lead against Montreal and a 1-0 lead against Winnipeg, giving up six third-period goals across the two.
Evgeni Malkin, Tommy Novak, Declan Carlile and Erik Karlsson all have four points, and 19-year-old Ben Kindel has scored in both games since being activated. Crosby has two assists and a team-leading 10 shots, including five against Winnipeg.
Bryan Rust and Justin Brazeau are both still listed on injured reserve on ESPN's injury report.
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