Spain vs Argentina Predictions
European champions Spain face defending world champions Argentina in a blockbuster World Cup final at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.
In a potentially thrilling final with many subplots, it’s hard to pick a winner with too much confidence.
Argentina have repeatedly found a way to get the job done, and cannot be discounted despite their underdog status on Sunday.
I fancy the holders to avoid a 90-minute defeat, while I also have stakes on BTTS and a draw, with Lionel Messi also tipped to score or assist.
Argentina Tipped to Avoid Defeat
- Argentina are unbeaten in their last 13 matches (World Cup)
- Argentina have seen BTTS in their last 5 matches
- Argentina's Lionel Messi has scored or assisted in his last 10 appearances (World Cup)
- Spain have seen BTTS in their last 5 matches against Argentina
Argentina and Spain Level in H2H Record
Spain and Argentina have met on 14 previous occasions, with both nations claiming six victories. Two games finished level.
La Roja secured a remarkable 6-1 friendly victory in their most recent encounter in Madrid in 2018.
Remarkably, Sunday’s contest will be the first-ever competitive meeting between the nations and their first encounter at a World Cup.
Spain Produce Semi-Final Masterclass
Spain secured their place in Sunday’s World Cup final with an impressive 2-0 victory against France in Dallas.
Mikel Oyarzabal opened the scoring from the penalty spot before Pedro Porro ensured a surprisingly one-sided victory with Spain’s second goal.
Luis de la Fuente’s side controlled possession, dictated the tempo and outplayed their European rivals with an exemplary display reminiscent of the side that claimed their only previous World Cup title in 2010.
The European champions' dominance was reflected in the final expected goals (xG) totals, with Spain registering 1.63 compared to France's 0.31.
In possession of a superb unbeaten record, de la Fuente’s men are unbeaten in 37 matches across all fixtures. The Spanish have avoided defeat in their last 38 competitive internationals, with their most recent competitive loss coming against Scotland in March 2023.
Free-flowing in the forward areas, but remarkably solid in defence, Spain have conceded just one goal in seven games at the World Cup.
Argentina Complete Dramatic Comeback
Argentina reached a second successive World Cup final after a truly remarkable 2-1 comeback victory against England in Atlanta.
Anthony Gordon opened the scoring in the 55th minute before Lionel Messi again inspired the Argentine comeback as Scaloni’s men punished England’s decision to retreat into an increasingly defensive shape.
The 39-year-old set up both goals while completing nine of 11 dribbles attempted in a performance that belied his advancing years.
The Argentina captain has now created 25 chances, including eight big opportunities, while scoring eight goals and providing four assists during an extraordinary World Cup campaign.
Still leading the Golden Boot race, Messi has scored or assisted in 11 straight FIFA World Cup games dating back to 2022, extending the longest such streak on record (last 60 years).
Despite defensive vulnerabilities, Argentina have now won 14 successive fixtures dating back to September last year. The World champions conceded in each of their last five victories, but have scored two goals or more in 13 successive fixtures.
Argentina’s experience and resilience have repeatedly carried them through several challenging moments at this competition.
Lionel Scaloni’s side needed extra time to beat Cape Verde and Switzerland, while they recovered from two goals down against Egypt before producing their late fightback against England.
Spain vs Argentina Team News
Spain: (4-3-3) Unai Simon; Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsi, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella; Rodri, Fabian Ruiz, Dani Olmo; Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Alex Baena
Luis de la Fuente is set to name the same starting XI that dominated their semi-final win against France.
Lamine Yamal and Pedro Porro trained separately from the rest of the squad on Thursday, but are expected to start this weekend.
Nico Williams has recovered from injury, but Alex Baena is likely to keep his place on the left wing.
De la Fuente was full of confidence when speaking to the media after Spain’s superb win against France.
“We’re so proud,” he said. “This amazing generation of players has such a great attitude and is a role model for so many different values. We are united for a common cause. Now we have the last step, the toughest one. We’ll have to improve, and we’ll try to do so.
“Of course, we would have loved to win the first game, but this is a process, and it was all planned for us to reach these key moments in the best shape possible. Now we are in great shape, the players are very excited, and we have reached a peak after this long season.”
Argentina: (4-4-2) Emiliano Martinez; Nahuel Molina, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martinez, Nicolas Tagliafico; Giuliano Simeone, Leandro Paredes, Enzo Fernandez, Alexis Mac Allister; Lionel Messi, Julian Alvarez
Lionel Scaloni has no major reported injury concerns ahead of Argentina’s attempt to retain the World Cup.
Giuliano Simeone could remain in the starting XI after Scaloni selected him ahead of Rodrigo De Paul against England.
Leandro Paredes is expected to anchor the midfield, allowing Enzo Fernandez and Alexis Mac Allister to support Messi and Julian Alvarez in the forward areas.
Scaloni admitted Argentina had “smelled blood” during their semi-final victory over England.
“We were under a bit of pressure, but the opposition began to doubt themselves,” Scaloni said at his post-match press conference. “We all felt it. We smelled blood and went for it.
“There was a vacuum inside England’s goal. The ball went in after hitting the post twice. After England scored, we showed what our football is about. It is more than tactics and playing attractive football."