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Home / Predictions / Tennis / Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian Baez Betting Picks & Live Stream – Nakashima Brings the Form Edge at the US Open

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Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian Baez Betting Picks & Live Stream – Nakashima Brings the Form Edge at the US Open

Quick Read

  • Nakashima is on career-best form, now ranked No. 17
  • Baez has struggled in form and against Top 20 players
  • Experts favor Nakashima to win in straight sets
James Smith
Written by James Smith
Updated: Aug 31, 2026
Brandon Nakashima

Brandon Nakashima plays a forehand against Taylor Fritz in MasonSource: Getty

Brandon Nakashima has been one of the standout performers of this year's US Open Series, reaching the semi-finals in Washington, the final at the Montreal Masters and the semi-finals in Cincinnati. 

With the kind of form Nakashima has shown and his superior hard-court ability compared to Sebastian Baez, he looks very difficult to oppose here.

Nakashima Looks To Build Momentum At Flushing Meadows

  • Brandon Nakashima has a 5–1 record in first-round matches at the US Open. 
  • He has won 11 of his last 14 matches against Top 50 players. 
  • Sebastian Baez has a 2–2 record in first-round matches at the US Open. 
  • He has a 0–6 record against Top 20 players at Grand Slam tournaments.

HTH - Brandon Nakashima leads 1-0

YearTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024WimbledonR1GrassBrandon Nakashima6-2, 6-3, 6-4

Nakashima Rides Career-Best Momentum into the US Open

Brandon Nakashima has impressive momentum on his side, reaching at least the semifinals in all three events he entered during the North American swing, including a runner-up finish in Montreal and a semifinal appearance in Cincinnati. 

Before this stretch, he had never reached the quarterfinals at a Masters event in his career. These results helped him break into the Top 20 for the first time and recently achieve a career-high ranking of No. 17. 

He also reached the final in Brisbane and the semifinals in Acapulco and at Queen's Club earlier this year. He now heads into this clash with a 5-1 record in first-round matches at the US Open.

CategoryDetails
CountryUnited States
AgeBorn 03 August 2001
PlaysRight-handed
World RankingNo. 17
Career HighNo. 17 (24 August 2026)
Elo RankingNo. 17
Tour-Level Titles2

Sebastian Baez Searches for a Return to Form

Sebastian Baez produced some solid results earlier this year, reaching the final in Auckland, the semifinals in Buenos Aires and Santiago, and the third round at Indian Wells. However, his level has dropped in the following months. 

He has played 14 events on tour from Miami through Winston-Salem last week and registered multiple wins only twice, reaching the quarterfinals in Bastad and Kitzbuhel, which highlights his struggles in recent months. 

This is his fifth appearance at the US Open, and he has cleared the opening-round hurdle in two of his previous four appearances, including reaching the third round in 2023.

CategoryDetails
CountryArgentina
AgeBorn 28 December 2000
PlaysRight-handed
World RankingNo. 50
Career HighNo. 18 (24 June 2024)
Elo RankingNo. 65
Tour-Level Titles7
James Smith
James Smith

After playing footy from the age of 8, James always knew that this is a career path that he wanted to follow. Featuring as one of our sports and betting writers, James plays an integral part of the day-to-day running of the site.

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