Stars vs Capitals Prediction and Picks - Back Washington

The Dallas Stars come east to face the Washington Capitals at 7 p.m. ET, and my Stars vs Capitals prediction backs the home side to bounce back after a heavy loss on Sunday.

Washington have won eight of their 13 games, and at 1.90 I'll back them at home. The worry is Dallas's defence, which allows just 2.21 goals a game with a 93.6% penalty kill.

Ryan Leonard hasn't missed this line all season. He's had two or more shots on goal in all 13 games, and 1.56 is barely above my limit, but that record makes it the strongest bet on the card.

Jordan Kyrou has settled in well in Washington. He has a point in seven of his last 10 games and an assist on Alex Tuch's winner in Nashville, so 2.05 is a good price.

Washington have conceded the first goal in eight of their 13 games.

Dallas are averaging only 25.6 shots a game.

Leonard has 35 shots on goal and two power-play goals.

Kyrou has seven assists while playing just over 14 minutes a night.

Dallas won the 2025-26 season series 2-0, with a 1-0 home win in October and a 4-1 win in Washington in January. Tonight is the first meeting of this season.

The last meeting was January 7, 2026, at Capital One Arena, where Dallas won 4-1. Radek Faksa's shorthanded goal 3.06 into the game set the tone, and the Stars were up 3-0 before Alex Ovechkin scored late in the third.

Dallas are 8-5-1 and have allowed only 31 goals in 14 games.

Thursday's 5-2 home loss to Montreal turned in the first period, when Cole Caufield scored twice and Alex Newhook added one. On Saturday, Dallas were outshot 25-17 by Columbus, but Jake Oettinger stopped 24 of 25 shots in a 3-1 win.

Matt Duchene is out with an abdomen injury, according to ESPN's preview, which takes a veteran centre out of the Dallas lineup. Radek Faksa is day to day, and Oskar Back and Kyle Capobianco are out. Oettinger is the likely starter but hasn't been confirmed.

Washington are 8-5 and have scored 16 goals in their last five games.

Thursday's 4-3 win in Nashville came from Cole Hutson, who scored twice, before Tuch won it at 10.09 of the third. On Sunday, Minnesota scored twice in the first 5.27 and won 5-1, with Logan Thompson allowing four goals on 27 shots.

Rasmus Sandin is out with a knee injury, per ESPN, which leaves Washington a defenceman short. Patrick Thomas and Vincent Desharnais are also out. Washington haven't confirmed whether Thompson or Charlie Lindgren starts.