Bucks vs Magic Predictions & Picks - Orlando to Finally Win at Home
- Orlando Magic -9.5 and Wagner over 6.5 assists are tipped.
- Bucks have lost all road games, four by 11+ points, and rank 29th in defence.
- Wagner has exceeded 6.5 assists in six of nine games since Banchero's injury.
By Ryan Tucker • Sports Editor & Betting Analyst
Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Fact Checked by: Leigh Copson•Updated:
Bucks vs Magic Expert Predictions & Picks
I'm taking the Orlando Magic -9.5 at home on Friday, Nov. 13, at 7:00 p.m. ET with Franz Wagner over 6.5 assists as the player prop.
Yes, Orlando is 0-4 at home and to be honest, I'm not scared of it. The Bucks are 1-11 with the 29th-ranked net rating and the 29th-ranked defense, and they're giving up 121.3 points a game.
They've lost all five road games, four of them by 11 or more. Orlando, meanwhile, just won at Sacramento and Utah.
Wagner is the prop. Paolo Banchero hasn't played since Oct. 23, and Wagner has turned into the playmaker. He's topped 6.5 assists in six of the nine games Orlando has played since the Banchero injury.
Key Stats
- Milwaukee's five road losses came by 7, 11, 12, 12 and 32 points
- The Bucks rank 29th in net rating (-14.3) and defensive rating
- Wagner is averaging 23.5 points and 7.9 assists
- Orlando won two of three meetings last season, including 130-91 in Milwaukee
Head to Head
Orlando won two of three meetings last season. The Magic won 118-99 at Kia Center in February, then lost 116-108 there two nights later. They finished it off with a 130-91 win in Milwaukee in March.
Wagner had 5 and 3 assists in his two games against Milwaukee.
Milwaukee Bucks Form
There isn't much going right. Milwaukee ranks 28th in offensive rating, and its only win came 110-102 over Indiana on Oct. 26. Since then, it's lost to Houston by 32, Cleveland by 25 and New York by 32.
Tyler Herro is averaging 21.9 points and Jaime Jaquez Jr. 16.1, and Ryan Rollins chips in 10.8 points and 4.1 assists. The rest of the rotation hasn't given them enough. Myles Turner is down to 6.7 points a game, and Milwaukee is 0-2 on the second night of back-to-backs. Earl Timberlake is a game-time call.
Orlando Magic Form
The Magic are 4-7, but they're 4-3 on the road and have won two straight. Wagner has scored 30, 33 and 38 in his last three. Desmond Bane adds 18 points and 3.9 threes, and Anthony Black is averaging 19.8 over his last five.
Wendell Carter Jr. has the best matchup of anyone. Milwaukee allows 13.9 rebounds a game to centers, the second-most in the league. Banchero (ankle) and Jonathan Isaac are out, and Jalen Suggs and Tristan da Silva are game-time calls.
The wins at Sacramento (107-100) and Utah (123-108) came on back-to-back nights, so this group can grind. Milwaukee's 28th-ranked offense shouldn't test a defense ranked 20th much.
Verdict
Orlando's home record is a fluke. It went 26-16 at home last season. Milwaukee has lost every road game by seven or more. I'm laying the 9.5 with the Magic and backing Wagner to keep running the offense.
Ryan Tucker
Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Tipster & Betting Model Expert
Ryan is a sports content writer and editor, producing insights and analysis for major sports including NFL, NHL, NBA and more.
Born in Australia, multiple trips to North America deepened his love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for all major sporting events across basketball, ice hockey, baseball, football and Australian sports that are still close to his heart.