Colts vs Steelers Prediction - 5 Trends, 3 Props and My Pick (NFL Week 5)
Colts +2.5 at 1.96 implies a 51% shot for the team with the better points differential, facing an offence that ranks 29th in EPA per play. I make it closer to 56%, playable down to 1.87 but not at +1.5.
The Indianapolis Colts (2-2) visit the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, October 11, at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Colts vs Steelers Prediction - Quick Pick
Pick: Colts +2.5 at 1.96
Prop 1: Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown at 1.55
Prop 2: Aaron Rodgers over 218.5 passing yards at 1.89
Prop 3: Daniel Jones over 0.5 interceptions at 1.84
5 Trends That Decide Colts vs Steelers
- 29th in EPA per play. Pittsburgh's offence is at -0.11, and its 13 sacks taken rank 30th.
- 3rd against 32nd. The Colts rank 3rd in EPA per rush (0.12) and last in EPA per dropback (-0.21), so this offence runs through Jonathan Taylor.
- 77% against 80%. Indianapolis score touchdowns on 10 of 13 red zone trips (6th), and Pittsburgh allow touchdowns on 8 of 10 (28th).
- 591 passing yards. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 292 and 299 in his last two games, against a Colts defence allowing 261 net passing yards per game.
- 4 for 4. Daniel Jones has thrown an interception in every game, and the Steelers' 7 takeaways rank 6th.
Colts vs Steelers Player Props - 3 Best Bets
Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown
At 1.55, this implies 65%. Taylor has 6 rushing touchdowns, with two in each of three games, and he faces the league's 28th-ranked red zone defence.
I make it 71%, a fair price of 1.41. It's playable down to 1.50.
Aaron Rodgers Over 218.5 Passing Yards
At 1.89, this implies 53%. Rodgers has cleared it in 3 of 4 games, with 46 attempts last time out, and the Colts allow the 5th-most quarterback passing yards per game.
I make it 60%, a fair price of 1.67. Some bookmakers have already begun to move the line up to 222.5, but 218.5 is playable down to 1.80.
Daniel Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions
At 1.84, this implies 54%. Jones is 4 for 4 this season, and the Colts rank last in EPA per dropback.
I make it 61%, a fair price of 1.64. It's playable down to 1.75.
Colts Form and Team News
The Colts won 30-13 at Washington last week, with Taylor scoring twice, and they've won two straight. Before Friday's injury report, the official Week 5 injury report showed Taylor back to full practice on Thursday, while defensive end Arden Key (hamstring) and receiver Ashton Dulin (hamstring) missed both days.
Steelers Form and Team News
Pittsburgh lost 27-24 at Cleveland last Thursday, so they've had 10 days to prepare, but they've been outscored by 10 this season. Before Friday's injury report, the Steelers' Week 5 injury report had Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) missing Thursday with what Mike McCarthy called a multiple-week injury, and cornerback Jamel Dean (ankle) missing both days.
Colts vs Steelers Stats Comparison
| Stat (2026) | Colts | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Points scored per game | 25.5 | 19.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0 | 21.8 |
| Passing yards per game | 174.8 | 223.0 |
| Rushing yards per game | 109.5 | 94.8 |
| Turnovers / takeaways | 8 / 2 | 7 / 7 |
| Offence EPA per play (rank) | -0.07 (24th) | -0.11 (29th) |
| Defence EPA per play (rank) | 0.07 (26th) | 0.00 (14th) |