Raiders vs Patriots Prediction - 5 Trends, 3 Props and My Pick (NFL Week 5)
Raiders +3.5 at 1.94 implies a 52% shot for the team with the better offence and defence by EPA per play. I make it closer to 57%.
The Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) visit the New England Patriots (2-2) at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, October 11, at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.
Raiders vs Patriots Prediction - Quick Pick
Pick: Raiders +3.5 at 1.94
Prop 1: Kirk Cousins over 1.5 passing touchdowns at 2.17
Prop 2: Drake Maye over 0.5 interceptions at 1.72
Prop 3: Tre Tucker over 3.5 receptions at 2.07
5 Trends That Decide Raiders vs Patriots
- 4-0 against the spread. Las Vegas have covered every game this season and won three of them outright.
- 10 giveaways against 9 takeaways. The Patriots have the most turnovers in the NFL, and the Raiders have forced the most.
- 4th against 23rd. The Raiders' defence ranks 4th in EPA per play allowed (-0.10), and the Patriots' offence ranks 23rd (-0.05).
- 11 touchdown passes. Kirk Cousins has thrown at least two in every game.
- 6 of 12 in the red zone. New England's 50% touchdown rate inside the 20 ranks 28th.
Raiders vs Patriots Player Props - 3 Best Bets
Kirk Cousins Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
At 2.17, this implies 46%. Cousins has cleared it in 4 of 4 games, and New England's top two cornerbacks missed Wednesday and Thursday practice before Friday's injury report.
I make it 55%, a fair price of 1.82. Some bookmakers have already begun to drop the price, but it's playable down to 1.95.
Pick: Kirk Cousins over 1.5 passing touchdowns at 2.17.
Drake Maye Over 0.5 Interceptions
At 1.72, this implies 58%. Maye has thrown an interception in all 4 games, 7 in total, and he's facing the league leaders in takeaways.
I make it 63%, a fair price of 1.59. It's playable down to 1.65.
Pick: Drake Maye over 0.5 interceptions at 1.72.
Tre Tucker Over 3.5 Receptions
At 2.07, this implies 48%. Tucker has cleared it in 3 of 4 games, with an 18% target share over his last three, and Jalen Nailor (concussion) missed both practices.
I make it 54%, a fair price of 1.85. It's playable down to 1.95.
Pick: Tre Tucker over 3.5 receptions at 2.07.
Raiders Form and Team News
The Raiders are scoring 28.8 points per game, and their only loss was 30-27 to Kansas City. Before Friday's injury report, the Raiders' Week 5 injury report had Ashton Jeanty (ankle/foot) limited on Thursday, while Brock Bowers (knee) practised fully.
Patriots Form and Team News
New England are coming off a 29-26 win at Buffalo, but they're averaging only 16.2 points per game. Before Friday's injury report, the Patriots' injury report showed Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) and Carlton Davis (neck) missing both Wednesday and Thursday.
A.J. Brown hasn't played since Week 1 after going on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain in September.
Raiders vs Patriots Stats Comparison
| Stat (2026) | Raiders | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Points scored per game | 28.8 | 16.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.0 | 19.2 |
| Passing yards per game | 250.0 | 213.8 |
| Rushing yards per game | 93.0 | 117.8 |
| Turnovers / takeaways | 6 / 9 | 10 / 5 |
| Offence EPA per play (rank) | 0.01 (14th) | -0.05 (23rd) |
| Defence EPA per play (rank) | -0.10 (4th) | -0.01 (13th) |