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Home / MLB / Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox Predictions & Picks – Take Guardians & Plus Money In MLB Series Opener

Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox Predictions & Picks – Take Guardians & Plus Money In MLB Series Opener

Quick Read

  • Guardians on 5-game win streak; need win in AL Central race
  • Pitching advantage: Messick (2.57 ERA) vs Tolle (3.02 ERA)
  • Pick Cleveland to win; consider Under 6.5 total runs
Leigh Copson
Written by Leigh Copson
Sports Editor25+ Years Experience, US & Combat Sports Specialist
Updated: Sep 22, 2026
mlb guardians red sox
Our TipStrong confidence
Stake.us

Moneyline

Cleveland Win

Odds

100.00

Place Bet
Stake.us

Total Runs

Under 6.5

Odds

100.00

Place Bet

Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox Predictions & Picks

Cleveland are tipped to win the opening game of this series at Fenway Park.

The Guardians arrive in good form with a starting pitcher that has been outstanding this season, and they also have the added incentive of needing the victory with Chicago breathing down their necks in the AL Central standings.

  • Cleveland Guardians are on a 5-game win streak
  • Cleveland starter Parker Messick has a 2.57 ERA and 186 strikeouts
  • The two starting pitchers have a combined ERA of 5.59
  • The Under has cashed in 8 of Boston's previous 10 games

Head To Head

  • Cleveland Guardians lead the all-time series 1075-1015-8
  • Boston Red Sox won 9-4 when the two teams last met on May 31

Cleveland Guardians Form

Cleveland go into their penultimate series of the regular season having won seven of their last 10 games, and each of the last five.

DateOppositionW/LScore
Sep-09 at Baltimore Orioles L 5-9
Sep-11 at Minnesota Twins W 5-2
Sep-12 at Minnesota Twins L 3-4
Sep-13 at Minnesota Twins W 9-2
Sep-14 vs Chicago White Sox L 3-7
Sep-15 vs Chicago White Sox W 7-6 W/O
Sep-16 vs Chicago White Sox W 6-3
Sep-18 vs The Athletics W 5-3
Sep-19 vs The Athletics W 12-6
Sep-20 vs The Athletics W 1-0

Boston Red Sox Form

Boston enter this series on an underwhelming run of form, having now lost seven of their previous 11 games.

DateOppositionW/LScore
Sep-09 vs Los Angeles Angels L 4-6
Sep-11 vs Kansas City Royals L 2-3
Sep-12 vs Kansas City Royals W 5-1
Sep-13 vs Kansas City Royals W 4-1
Sep-15 at Texas Rangers L 2-4
Sep-16 at Texas Rangers L 3-7
Sep-17 at Texas Rangers W 4-3
Sep-18 at Tampa Bay Rays W 4-2
Sep-19 at Tampa Bay Rays L 1-2 W/O
Sep-20 at Tampa Bay Rays L 1-5

Starting Pitchers

PlayerTeamRecordERAStrikeoutsInnings
Parker Messick Cleveland Guardians 12-9 2.57 186 178.1
Payton Tolle Boston Red Sox 9-6 3.02 166 143.0

Verdict

Boston pretty much know their playoff fate already, but Cleveland still have work to do as their race with Chicago goes right down to the wire.

The Guardians are in better form and start one of the league’s most in-form pitchers in Messick, so give us the visitors and the plus-money.

Stake.us
Top Pick

Cleveland Win

at Stake.us

Stake.us

Under 6.5

at Stake.us

Leigh Copson
Leigh Copson

Sports Editor25+ Years Experience, US & Combat Sports Specialist

Leigh Copson is the editor of expert picks and provides daily picks for the NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB boxing and MMA. He provides analysis of the big events across major American leagues every day.


He started out with the Press Association before moving online and working for ExpertPicks.com, FreeTips.com and other sports news and betting sites. 

He has covered some of the biggest sporting events on the planet, including the Super Bowl, the Champions League Final and the World Cup Final and has covered almost every major boxing match and UFC fight card during this time.

Follow more of Leigh's work on Muckrack and connect with him on LinkedIn.


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